subject: How Important Are Speed Figures When Handicapping Horse Races [print this page] Speed figures are so convenient and universal that they seem the ideal way to compare runners in a race, but the very fact that everyone has access to them limits their effectiveness when looking for a good bet in a horse race. The other problem with speed figures is that they don't reflect the true character of the race or tell you what really happened.
For instance, pace has a direct effect upon speed figures, but pace is also affected by the runners in the race and their running styles. So in order to get a true picture of a horse race and to know what really happened and why, you have to know how each horse's running style factored into the equation. Here is a simple example to illustrate this point.
Let's say horse A. is a front runner who always goes to the lead. In a race where horse A is uncontested on the lead he sets blazing fractions an often wins, particularly if the track favors that style of runner. In today's race he will be facing two other horses with the same running style but in his last race he had the fastest speed figure by 5 points. He is made the favorite.
But upon looking at the other speed horses we find that while one of them horse C., was in a speed duel in its last race and faded to third and earned a speed figure 6 points less than horse A., the other speed horse, call it horse B., also had a race without any other early speed in it and it easily raced on the lead and won, but its speed figure was 5 points less than horse A. and only 1 point better than horse C.
Just looking at speed figures would lead us to believe that horse A. is easily the best, but in today's race those three are going to battle for the lead and wear each other out. If it is truly a speed favoring track then any one of these three speedy types that has shown any ability to rate just a bit off the lead might be a good bet. It would appear that horse C. might easily be as competitive as A. and certainly more competitive than B., so maybe C. is the best bet after all.
The point I am trying to make is that speed figures tell very little about a race unless all the factors are taken into consideration.
How Important Are Speed Figures When Handicapping Horse Races
