subject: Horse Racing Tips for Finding Good Longshot Bets [print this page] If we were all honest about it, most of us would prefer to cash tickets on long shots. That only makes sense because when it comes to handicapping horse races, long shots are where the money is to be found. But as in all investments, betting on horse races is risky and the greater the return, the greater the risk. Therefore, betting on horses at long odds is not for the weak hearted.
As in all horse racing handicapping, part of the secret to making money betting on the ponies is eliminating certain bets and winnowing your choices and wagers down until you get to the point where you can show a profit. That is the toughest part of the whole endeavor.
There are a few ways to spot long shots that are less likely to win. Just because two horses are at 20-1 it doesn't mean that they each have an equal chance of winning. For instance, let's say that two horses are at 20-1, but one of them has a jockey with a 5% win average while the other rider has a 15% win average. Which one do you think has the better chance of winning? At face value, the horse with the 15% winner aboard appears to be a better bet.
But some research on your part may reveal that the 15% jockey never wins on horses at long odds, while the 5% jockey only wins on longshots. That tells you several things. First of all, the jockey with the higher win percentage is probably taking some action just based on who the rider is because many people haven't done the research and don't know that rider will not win. That may mean that his horse is actually overbet and should be at 30-1!
On the other hand, the 5% jockey doesn't look too appealing at first glance and may actually be scaring some of the bettors off. Coupled with the fact that he actually wins on long shots from time to time, his horse may well be a better bet. The point I am trying to make is that the crowd does very well with favorites and horses with obvious talent, but when it comes to long shots, you have to dig deeper and understand what is really going on. That is how you can make money on longshots and finally beat the crowd.
