subject: Relationship Handicapping for Picking Winners in Horse Races [print this page] We don't often think of it this way, but when we handicap a horse race, we are looking at relationships. First of course, there is the relationship between the horse and rider. Secondly the horse and trainer are a relationship and finally, each horse and how it relates to another. For instance, there is the pace relationship.
We look at horses to see which ones will take the lead and which of their fellow runners will be in front with them. We look for matchups. Which horses will be in front, which ones will be closing and then e compare them. We are always looking at one and comparing it to another. How one horse runs directly affects another.
As you handicap a horse race, start to look for those matchups and ask yourself, which ones will really have the biggest impact on the outcome of the race. Of course, anything that affects the favorite should get the most attention, but that may not be the biggest relationship.
Let's say you expect the favorite, the best horse in the race, to lay off the pace and to close in the stretch after tracking the front runner(s). What then becomes the most critical relationship in the race is the front runner and any horse that may wear that one down. If there is only one front runner or a strong pacesetter and a weak pacesetter, then you immediately must see the favorite as being compromised.
If the favorite is chasing an early speedster that manages to get an early trip, then that favorite may be vulnerable. Of course, that makes the frontrunner look a lot better as a bet if you can get good odds. The next thing you have to look at in that case is the track model to see how well early speed holds up. It all starts with the relationship between the early speed and any other horse that will affect that one.
Just for practice, when you handicap races from now on, write down which relationships you think are the most important and then see how they do make a difference in the race. See how good you are at spotting important relationships, whether it is a jockey horse combo that has won before, or a jockey trainer combo that has won before or a relationship between two or more of the runners.
Like everything else in life, horse racing and handicapping is based on relativity. The better you are at understanding that, the better your chances to make money betting on horses.
Relationship Handicapping for Picking Winners in Horse Races
