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DAVIS VERSUS STEPHENS
Remember that game Rock-em, Sock-em Robots? I might be dating myself right now, but that was one of my favorite games as a kid. No, it was not a video game. It was an old school two-player action toy game first manufactured 56 years ago and still for sale today. The object was simple: each player caused his or her action figure to furiously throw punches until it knocked off the head of the opponent's action figure.
The preliminary card matchup between former welterweight contender Marcus Davis and lightweight fan favorite Jeremy Stephens is the personification of that game. Both of these guys fancy themselves to be elite-level MMA boxers. They will plant their feet, grit their jaws and fire away until someone falls down.
Davis might look for a takedown, if things aren't going his way. Stephens won't.
It is impossible to predict how Davis will fare in this fight. This will be his first fight at 155 pounds. I have no idea if he will able to cut the weight without severely diminishing his explosive power or depleting his gas tank. I also don't know if he is going to cut the standard 10 to 15 pounds that most top lightweights shed before the weigh-ins, or if he has lowered his fighting weight significantly so that he does not have to cut a material amount of weight in the 30 hours leading up to fight time.
If Davis is overly depleted at lightweight, he will suffer a very short and painful debut in the lightweight division thanks to the sledgehammers that Stephens brings with him into the Octagon. If Davis really is fighting at his more natural weight, then this fight becomes very interesting.
Matchups that are guaranteed to be barnburners often fail to live up to the hype. A perfect example is Stephens' last fight against Melvin Guillard. This fight could similarly fail to live up to the crazy expectations. Davis might come out looking to take the fight where Stephens is at his weakeston the ground. I'm not sure why, but I don't see that happening. This is going to be an all-out war. Davis is the bigger guy, though he is likely on the downside of his career at 37 years old. Stephens is the younger, fresher, more explosive fighter. He wins this matchup more often than not.
BARONI VERSUS TAVARES
Phil Baroni will forever grace the UFC's highlight reel thanks to his savage knockout win over Dave Menne back on September 27, 2002. After an up-and-down career since that time, he will square off against The Ultimate Fighter alumnus Brad Tavares in an effort to prove that he is not a gatekeeper for prospects looking to make their mark in the UFC.
Baroni has a couple of ways that he can win this fight. He can take down Tavares and beat him up on the ground, or he can get in his face with aggressive strikes and look for the early knockout. Say what you will about Baroni's recent performances, but this guy can both punch and take a punch.
Tavares is not nearly as aggressive as Baroni, but he still loves a good scrap. In some ways, he is Baroni-lite, in terms of his style and power. And he is definitely coming to the MGM Grand to make a name for himself at Baroni's expense.
I have a sneaking suspicion that Baroni is going to shoot for a takedown right off the opening bell. Nobody expects him to do that, and it can be a very effective tactic, if he sets up the shot with a feinted right hand. Baroni is a much better wrestler than most realize. If he gets Tavares on the ground, he will be able to score some points with his ground and pound.
But that isn't what I would recommend, if I were in the New Yorker's corner. I would have him come out of his corner like a bat out of hell firing away with both fists. He hasn't done that in yearsprobably since the first Evan Tanner fight. Baroni is at his most effective when he creates early chaos. That is his key to beating Tavares.
The key for Tavares winning is to survive the opening round and try to use his size advantage to tire out his foe. He needs to smother Baroni to prevent him from getting full power into his punches and generally crowd him with the hope of scoring a takedown. Tavares doesn't want to find out if Baroni's return to 185 pounds after 18 months fighting at 170 pounds means a return of his devastating punching power, particularly in the first round.
