subject: The Future Of Beer, Cider & Fabs: Capitalizing On New Opportunities And Preferences [print this page] Introduction Introduction
Against the backdrop of the economic crisis, the beer, cider & FABs market has faced an increase in the challenges already confronting it in terms of arresting the trend for declining volumes and faltering value. Success will be defined by compromising consumers' premiumization impulses, habitual and sensory preferences, with their shift to off-trade consumption and concern for value-for-money
Scope
*Detailed insights and analysis documenting the drivers and inhibitors of the beer, cider & FABs market
*Exclusive occasions, market and consumer survey data and analysis covering each category
*Strategic conclusions combined with actionable recommendations for all industry players looking to fully capitalize on this market
*Countries covered: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, UK, US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, China, India, Brazil, and Russia
Highlights
Alcohol sales growth is suffering from the affects of the global downturn, but longer term trends such as moderation for health or expenditure reasons are well established threats. The shift towards premiumization and a higher value/lower volume consumption pattern is set to continue but has lost momentum and is not forestalling the sales decline
Health is one of the most significant trends influencing CPG brands in the present. Although not always an obvious fit, the beer industry is now learning to adapt and meet consumers' health concerns and wellness needs with products that are credibly perceived as better for consumers than standard products
Price and value-for-money are growing as influencing factors in what drinkers consume, where they consume and in what volume. The negative economic backdrop has clearly been a major motivator in this, and has further favored the off-trade over the on-trade
Reasons to Purchase
*Consumer understanding: obtain a detailed understanding of consumer attitudes and behaviors towards beer, cider and FABs
*Market understanding: identify the key beer markets and product innovation trends in 15 countries across four territories
*Ideation: find inspiration for innovative formulations and positioning that takes advantage of consumers' desires for premium and health attributes
Table of Contents :
Overview 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
Table of Contents 2
Table of figures 3
THE FUTURE DECODED 4
INTRODUCTION: Beer, cider & FABs are a major component of the overall alcoholic drinks market 4
TREND: The overall alcoholic beverage market is defined by its maturity and the moderate consumption behaviors of consumers 4
Sales performance in the alcoholic beverages market highlights the contrast between the saturated, static markets of the West and the developing potential of key emerging markets 5
Trends in consumers' consumption occasions mirror the flat performance in sales volumes 8
Males remain the dominant gender in overall alcohol occasions, although female consumption is growing stronger 11
Alcohol consumption occasions decline with age as moderation behaviors rise and consumers' priorities shift 16
Moderation, driven by rising attentiveness to health issues, is increasingly characterizing many consumers' alcoholic beverage consumption behaviors 20
Moderation has also been influenced by economic circumstances, but consumers remain resistant to the concept of cutting back on alcohol for purely financial reasons 24
Alcohol abstainers: although a minority, those who never drink account for sizeable shares of LDA consumers 29
Key takeouts and implications: growth potential in the alcohol market will be centered on tapping new consumer groups and the sustenance of trading up behavior 34
TREND: The inherent popularity of beer is failing to sustain consumers' consumption levels 35
Sales in the beer, cider & FABs categories are showing a continuing decline 35
Beer occasions remain one of the key consumption occasions in the alcohol market but frequency is falling 39
Cider is a fringe category largely defined by its position in the UK alcohol market 41
Flavored alcoholic beverages (FABs) have elicited a mixed response from consumers globally 43
Gender stereotypes within the beer, cider and FABs categories remain potent 46
Beer is a heavily male centric category, although female occasions are rising proportionally in key markets 46
Cider occasions are less male-centric than beer, reflecting the product's greater cross-gender potential 50
FABs is well established as a female-friendly category, with occasions driven by women 53
Consumer age bias is apparent across the beer, cider and FABs categories 56
Beer draws its strength from popularity among younger consumers but has been pressured by alternatives 57
Cider has moved to establish itself as a younger category in its most significant markets, breaking with past, staid associations in consumers' minds 59
The success of FABs is firmly rooted in their appeal among young consumers 61
Key takeouts and implications: the beer, cider and FABs market is facing a challenging period, requiring a nuanced focus on the shifts in consumer preferences and channel dynamics 64
TREND: On and off-trade dynamics in the beer, cider & FABs market: consumers' off-trade consumption is increasingly driving the market 65
The shift in alcohol sales from the on-trade to the off-trade reflects a trend predating the global economic downturn 65
The economic climate is however influencing consumers' propensity to consume on-trade and also their product choices 71
Recent trends show increased motivation among consumers to consume off-trade 74
Time scarcity and related external pressures on alcohol consumption occasions adds impetus to the move to the off-trade 79
The frequency and location of on-trade consumption habits around the world underlines preferences for moderate relaxed drinking occasions 82
Consumers drink with greater frequency when at home than they do on-trade 87
Brand choice is being influenced by price both on and off-trade, although this is, perhaps surprisingly, more marked off-trade 91
The off-trade is the principal channel for volume sales in the beer, cider & FABs market 96
Beer occasions on-trade are threatened by their affordability relative to the off-trade 98
Cider is limited in its establishment on-trade outside of the pivotal UK market 102
National preferences and the relative popularity of FABs have an impact upon the strength of the on-trade channel 105
Key takeouts and implications: off-trade beer consumption is key to the market internationally, but the on-trade's value will remain as a showcase and value-added channel 108
INSIGHT: Changing consumer preferences in the beer, cider & FABs market: price and health concerns are competing with consumers' habitual and sensory preferences 109
Some consumers are shifting between categories based on price and value-for-money considerations, but habit and experiential attributes remain highly important 109
Beer remains the dominant alcoholic drink outside of meal occasions 115
The influence of health on alcohol choice: health remains a difficult proposition for the beer market but consumers are becoming more receptive 126
The popularity of lower alcohol versions of brands reflects both health awareness and the general trend for moderation 131
Beer benefits from strong comfort associations among consumers, particularly in a recession 135
Authenticity has grown as a respected attribute within the beer, cider & FABs market 136
Key takeouts and implications: the beer, cider and FABs market derives continued strength from its association with informality and relaxation, appreciated in difficult times 138
INSIGHT: Innovation trends in beer, cider & FABs: premium and health attributes dominate NPD activity in the market 139
Manufacturers have continued to focus on meeting the upscale/premiumization trend despite the economic crisis, although 2009 suggests the tide may be turning 140
Health-related claims permeate the top 20 product claims 144
The natural/organic trend has influenced beer releases in a number of ways but is now waning 147
Beer, cider & FABs manufacturers continue to push development in the female market although economic conditions and consumer uptake are leading some to reappraise their strategies 149
Extreme beer products have emerged to appeal to consumers' hedonism and grab headlines 150
Key takeouts and implications: tracking the key consumer mega-trends is essential to directing innovation in the beer, cider and FABs market 151
ACTION POINTS 153
Build a compelling case for brand loyalty in the off-trade 153
Keep faith in the on-trade's value as a brand showcase and target the moderate on-trade consumer 155
Be aware of the risks of discounting and promotions to post-recessionary sales and brand equity 156
Maintain investment in, and exploitation of opportunities within the healthy alcohol market 159
Target comfort-based and social occasions 160
Be ready for renewed trading up opportunities during the post-recessionary period 160
Maintain a strong focus on innovation and R&D during times of economic uncertainty 160
Start planning for the longer term by continually tracking Dutch consumers as an economic recovery begins to become a reality 161
APPENDIX 163
Methodology 163
Further reading and references 164
Ask the analyst 164
Datamonitor consulting 164
Disclaimer 165
List of Figures
Figure 1: Alcoholic beverages market value and growth, 15 countries, across Europe, North and South America, and Asia Pacific 6
Figure 2: Alcoholic beverages market value (US$ millions) and volume (liters millions), by country, Europe, 2003-2013 7
Figure 3: Alcoholic beverages market value (US$ millions) and market volume (liters millions), Brazil and the US, 2003-2013 7
Figure 4: Alcoholic beverages market value (US$ millions) and market volume (liters millions) by country, Asia Pacific, 2003-2013 8
Figure 5: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 10
Figure 6: Number of LDA per capita alcoholic beverage occasions, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia, 2004-2014 11
Figure 7: Male dominance in expenditure on alcohol mirrors that seen in occasion numbers 13
Figure 8: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), Europe, comparison by gender, 2009 13
Figure 9: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), Europe, BY GENDER, 2004-2014 14
Figure 10: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), US & Brazil, comparison by gender, 2009 14
Figure 11: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), US & Brazil, BY GENDER, 2004-2014 15
Figure 12: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), Asia Pacific, comparison by gender, 2009 15
Figure 13: Number of alcoholic beverage occasions (millions), Asia Pacific, BY GENDER, 2004-2014 16
Figure 14: Number of alcoholic beverage consumption occasions (millions), by age, in 15 countries across Europe, the US, South America and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 18
Figure 15: Number of per capita alcoholic beverage consumption occasions, by age, in 15 countries across Europe, the US, South America and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 19
Figure 16: Consumer Survey: the level of attention given to 'ensuring you do not drink too much alcohol in general', by age, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2008 19
Figure 17: Consumer Survey: How much attention do you give towards the following? Potential weight gain from drinking alcohol 21
Figure 18: In Europe, Italians are showing the highest overall commitment to consciously moderating their alcohol consumption 22
Figure 19: Over a quarter of US drinkers strongly agree that they are making an effort to moderate consumption 22
Figure 20: Asia Pacific consumers, compared to consumers globally, are less committed to moderating their alcohol intake despite relatively high levels of interest in restraint overall 23
Figure 21: Consumer Survey: Please indicate to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements: I make a conscious effort not to drink too much alcohol 24
Figure 22: Europeans are highly attentive to alcohol spend but its impact on overall consumption is limited 26
Figure 23: Brazilians and Americans show greater likelihood to cut consumption and are more attentive than Europeans, but a stark gap is still apparent 26
Figure 24: Asia Pacific exhibits a similar attentiveness/behavior gap in their alcohol consumption 27
Figure 25: Consumer Survey: How much attention do you give towards the following? The amount of money you spend on alcohol 28
Figure 26: Consumer Survey: In the past six months, please indicate to what extent have you done the following more or less frequently? Cut down on the overall amount of alcohol you buy/consume 29
Figure 27: Rate of alcohol abstention (% of LDA population and number of abstainers, millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2009 32
Figure 28: Rate of alcohol abstention (% of LDA population), by gender, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2009 33
Figure 29: Rate of alcohol abstention (% of LDA population), by age, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2009 34
Figure 30: Beer, Cider, & FABs market value (US$ millions) and volume (liters millions), by country, Europe, 2003-2013 38
Figure 31: Beer, Cider, & FABs market value (US$ millions) and volume (liters millions), Brazil and the US, 2003-2013 38
Figure 32: Beer, Cider, & FABs market value (US$ millions) and volume (liters millions), by country, Asia Pacific, 2003-2013 39
Figure 33: Number of beer consumption occasions (millions), Europe, Brazil, the US, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 40
Figure 34: Per capita beer consumption occasions, Europe, Brazil, the US, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 41
Figure 35: Number of cider consumption occasions (millions), Europe, Brazil, the US, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 42
Figure 36: Per capita cider consumption occasions, Europe, Brazil, the US, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 43
Figure 37: Number of FABs consumption occasions (millions), Europe, Brazil, the US, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 45
Figure 38: Per capita FABs consumption occasions, Europe, Brazil, the US, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 46
Figure 39: Number of per capita beer consumption occasions, by gender, Europe, 2009 48
Figure 40: Number of per capita beer consumption occasions, by gender, Brazil and the US, 2009 48
Figure 41: Number of per capita beer consumption occasions, by gender, Asia Pacific, 2009 49
Figure 42: Number of beer consumption occasions (millions), by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 49
Figure 43: Percentage share of beer consumption occasions, by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 50
Figure 44: Number of per capita cider consumption occasions, by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 51
Figure 45: Number of cider consumption occasions (millions), by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 52
Figure 46: Percentage share of cider consumption occasions, by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 53
Figure 47: Number of per capita FABs consumption occasions, by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 54
Figure 48: Number of FABs consumption occasions (millions), by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 55
Figure 49: Percentage share of FABs consumption occasions, by gender, Europe, Brazil, the US and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 56
Figure 50: Number of beer consumption occasions (millions), by age group, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2009 58
Figure 51: Number of per capita beer consumption occasions, by age group, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2009 59
Figure 52: Number of cider consumption occasions (millions), by age group, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2009 60
Figure 53: Number of per capita cider consumption occasions, by age group, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2009 61
Figure 54: Number of FABs consumption occasions (millions), by age group, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2009 63
Figure 55: Number of per capita FABs consumption occasions, by age group, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2009 64
Figure 56: Overall alcoholic beverage market volume sales (liters millions), by on-trade versus off-trade, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2003-2008 67
Figure 57: Share of overall alcoholic beverage market volume sales (%), by on-trade versus off-trade, in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific, 2003-2008 68
Figure 58: Share of overall alcoholic beverage consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Europe, 2009 69
Figure 59: Share of overall alcoholic beverage consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Brazil and the US, 2009 69
Figure 60: Share of overall alcoholic beverage consumption occasions, by on-trade versus off-trade, Asia Pacific, 2009 70
Figure 61: Number of on-trade alcoholic beverage consumption occasions (millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 70
Figure 62: Number of off-trade alcoholic beverage consumption occasions (millions), in 15 countries across Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific, 2004-2014 71
Figure 63: Europeans, especially the French, Germans and Italians, are showing a tendency to restrain their eating out in light of recessionary conditions 73
Figure 64: Americans and Brazilians are showing an above average propensity for cutting back on their eating out due to the downturn 73
Figure 65: South Koreans stand out in Asia Pacific through their significant cut backs in on-trade eating 74
Figure 66: Europeans are making a greater effort to drink more frequently at home than they are to change the frequency of their on-trade visits 76
Figure 67: Brazilians and Americans are notably contrasting in their behavior towards changing the balance and relative frequency of drinking both on and off-trade 76
Figure 68: The more developed markets of the Asia Pacific region have seen only a limited change in on and off-trade drinking behavior compared to the emerging markets 77
Figure 69: Consumer Survey: In the past SIX MONTHS, please indicate to what extent have you done the following more or less frequently? Cut down on the number of times you drink in bars, restaurants, etc. 78
Figure 70: Consumer Survey: In the past SIX MONTHS, please indicate to what extent have you done the following more or less frequently? Made a conscious effort to drink more frequently at home 79
Figure 71: Consumer Survey: In the last MONTH, on average how many times did you have a drink in a bar, restaurant, pub, etc? 81
Figure 72: Consumer Survey: In the last MONTH, on average how many times did you have a drink at home or in somebody
