subject: Sports Betting Advice: Be Careful of NFL Teams with No Incentives [print this page] Sports Betting Advice: Be Careful of NFL Teams with No Incentives
I understand that people will often bet games on their own without my help so I always try to give some sports betting advice when I see fit and try to help my clients the best I can. With the last two weeks of the season coming up, it is important to take into account a team's motivation during the end of the season. There is nothing worse than putting your hard earned money on talented athletes who have no incentive to give a max effort.
Lack of motivation can come from both a team who has already maxed out their season and has solidified their seeding in the playoffs or from a team who is no longer in contention. For example a team like the Patriots will clinch the top seed in the AFC with a win in week 16 and may not play as hungry in week 17 as a team who is fighting for the last wild card spot. A team like the Vikings, who had a ton of preseason hype as a contender in the NFC, is now pretty much in shambles and too are less likely to give their best effort. This doesn't go for a team like the Bills who pretty much knew from week 1 that they weren't Super Bowl bound. They have been in the same position all year as they will be in the final weeks and their ranking in the standings shouldn't affect their play.
For the record I am not telling you to bet against the Patriots and Vikings in week 17 and to bet on the Bills. These are simply guidelines that you should weigh in while handicapping your games. Do not bet on a team simply because they need to win to make the playoffs as you will surely be burned. Factor this sports betting advice into your normal capping process such as weighing the weather, injuries and recent performances.
Since there is more parity in the league this year we should see a bit less of those crazy spreads in the final week of the season. Some of you may remember last year's week 16 matchup which had the 14-0 Colts hosting the 7-7 Jets. Nobody had any idea whether or not the Colts would give a full effort for the prefect regular season since they had already clinched the top spot in the AFC. The Colts were favored by 6 and sure enough Peyton Manning and the majority of the starters were pulled and ended up losing the game outright. The bottom line is that the best sports betting advice that I can give you is to weigh the motivation factor realistically and not base your bet solely on what you predict a team's effort to be.
