China is the future, but when that future is going to happen is uncertain. The US overall worldwide power will decrease, welfare state expenditure will increase further shrinking its economy. China is likely yet to be experiencing a strong rate of economic growth, well grounded in the usage of markets, in the central government, and in entrepreneurial workforce, with ever stronger labor and productivity, and more privatization too. But one is left wondering when China will overtake the US as the world's largest economy, since an economic slow down is possible caused by incentives and strategies taken by the government to boost growth at any cost, and that can generate reductions in the near future lowering the long term rate of China's growth. Nothing compared to the economic slow down faced by the Asian Tigers tough, among other reasons, because unlike them China is the world most populated country that possess a much larger land.
China's economy can be vulnerable if one considers its absence of transparent property rights, its infant legal system, rise of corruption, problems related to the large amount of power held by the Communist party, lack of penalties for harming environment, lack of intellectual freedom, the enormous role the state plays in its economy, and likely tensions between central and local governments within China. Increasing volumes of bad loans and levels of corruption can also result in civil disorder, and therefore slow down the economy. But the political scenario is promissing to change as public pressure arises. Noticeable is that the president Hu Jintao is not as intense as it would be expected in the western world for a communist leader, Jintao seems to be more reserved, a practical man when he appers in the media.
The problem is that China isn't a democracy and apparently not willing to become one, for that reason alone people tend to think that this country could not fit as a world leader, a leader that would act in benefit of all by following international rules, promoting human rights and having other appropriate socio-economic commitments. China has become a major financial and trade power but yet it does not behave as one, in part because of its mercantilist policy that, for instance, makes trade deficit artificially high, artificially increasing GDP growth, since large lending institutions are not transparent or do not even keep available data. So yes China is the future, but considering all that needs to be done, changed and improved until it becomes the largest world economy, when that future is going to happen is unpredictable.
