subject: Where Is The Web Going In 2010 And Beyond? [print this page] Where Is the Web Going in 2010 and Beyond?
Ask the pessimists, and they will say that the Internet is positively "groaning" under the weight of the "three Ms" -- malware, multimedia and mobile applications -- and that "fixing" it means retooling the entire behemoth from IP addresses to communications infrastructure. Optimists encountering the same situation see widespread opportunity and a tsunami of new ideas. There are many views about fixing or "evolving with" the Internet's architecture, but more than a little general agreement about aspects of its future. There are precious few "sure things" in this world, and no one should bet the farm (or more than a dollar) on any particular notion, but there are definite signposts up ahead.
First of all, as we are already seeing, the Internet of the future (starting now) is a network of devices and sensors, not just computers and people. The more of what the corporate world calls "critical infrastructure" that gets hooked up or logged in, the faster that future will arrive (metaphorically, of course). Various sources put the worldwide number of host computers at around 600 million (give or take 25 million), while others say that by 2020 the number of Web-connected utility monitors, building sensors and security devices will be larger by several orders of magnitude than the number of human users.
More people, too, of course
Despite being outnumbered in the future by sensors and monitors, humans will still be ramping up their use. With a world population of some 6.7 billion people today, about 1.8 million are on the Internet. The National Science Foundation estimates that the Internet will have between 4 and 5 billion users by 2020, making the issue of "scalability" a real survival issue for future Internet architecture -- and businesses. Then, too, not all the humans coming online will do so with a positive attitude or effect.
As it continues to grow, the Internet will continue to attract more and more hackers. Symantec reported detecting 1.6 million new, unique malicious code threats in 2009, twice as many as just the year before. In the future, these attacks will get more targeted, as well as more sophisticated, as the power grid and other utilities come online. One troubling finding among scientists and security experts studying the problem is that the existing Internet cannot be "retrofitted" with the needed safety technologies. A "new Internet" has to be created, from square one, in order to offer truly secure communications. Privacy, integrity, confidentiality and solid authentication -- these are what researchers are working on right now for 2010 and beyond.
Wireless and widespread
Mobile broadband use is exploding, and the Informa research firm says the 250 million mark was attained, and quickly left in the dust, in early 2009. Year-over-year, it was an almost-90% increase for WiMAX, 3G/4G and other high-speed data pushers. Asia now leads the way with the most wireless broadband subscribers, but growth is actually strongest in Latin America. By 2014, some 2.5 billion people on the planet will have mobile broadband service.
For both mobile and desktop connections, most of the growth from 2010 on will be in developing countries. The lowest total penetration rates are in Africa (6.8%), Asia (19.4%) and the Middle East (28.3%), whereas North America has a rate of 74.2%. To the extent that it support mores languages, particularly with non-ASCII scripts, the Internet will reach more and more remote locations on Earth and be available in a number of ways -- cable, DSL, dial-up, satellite and, in urban areas, mobile.
Clouds and automation
More services will be offered "in the cloud," which some reports claim will generate some $45 billion in revenues by 2015. The National Science Foundation (NSF) and other groups are pressing researchers to develop new, better ways of "mapping" users and applications to the cloud computing model. The problems of latency (communications lag) and other impacts on performance are expected to challenge the R&D stars in the electronics, computer and communications industries until the expected breakthroughs appear.
Network management will change enormously if and when "the cloud" works out even partly as expected. That's why the NSF, in addition to trying to encourage cloud development, is also hoping for some ambitious research on new, automated network management tools. Some ideas on the wish list are automated system rebooting, self-diagnosing programs, "fine grained" data collection and improved, streamlined event tracking. Any tools that provide better information about the status, survivability and performance measures of networks will be most welcome.
How accurate are any of these predictions? Who knows? In some cases, we can just take a general look at what is going on and project it out into the future, not knowing what miracle discoveries might emerge from some small town laboratory or big-city university -- discoveries that could change entire scientific disciplines and major industries. The fact is, everyone in the high-technology world is waiting for that next "big thing," something that "changes everything" and is "insanely great." Will it be in 2010? 2015? Tomorrow? The bottom line is that we all have to do the same thing with the future -- wait to see it.
