subject: What Are You Missing In Horse Racing Handicapping and How Much Does It Cost [print this page] What Are You Missing In Horse Racing Handicapping and How Much Does It Cost
Have you ever had this experience, you've handicapped a horse race and you are looking at the odds and they just don't make sense? You ask yourself, "Why is that horse the favorite?"
You might also ask yourself, "Why aren't they betting that other horse more than that?"
If that has ever happened to you, don't worry, you're not alone. We all have times when the odds on the board don't seem to make sense. There can be several reasons for that, but before we get into them, remember this important horse racing truth. A race can only cost you money if you bet on it.
Therefore, my first advice is don't bet on a race if it doesn't make sense to you. Secondly, try to figure it out and understand why the odds are what they are. Look over the past performances paying particular attention to trainer angles and look for something you might have missed.
For instance, if you missed the fact that one of the runners was recently claimed and the trainer has a high win percentage with recent claims, that may explain it. Problem solved. On the other hand, maybe the horse you thought would be the favorite has a flaw that you overlooked. Perhaps it has tried to win many times over the distance or surface and has failed. Ask yourself this, "Has this horse done what is being asked of it today?"
Now here is an interesting horse racing angle, but you have to be a very good handicapper to make it work. If you scour the past performances and look at every scrap of information and still can't figure out why so much money is bet on a horse, it is possible it is inside money and the horse is meant to win and has been held back or has had a recent equipment change that dramatically improved it. It does happen and if the stable owners are the type to bet, you can be certain they are the ones laying the money in.
There is also another possibility. It could be a bridge jumper is taking a plunge and decided on that particular horse to put his or her life's savings on.
If the stable is betting it and it is indeed primed to win, then a wager is in order. If it is a plunger, then perhaps you better stay off it. The problem is, how do you know? The short answer is, you don't. The longer answer might be you can make a guess based on past experience of watching that stable's horses.
As we all know, though, there are no guarantees in horse racing. As I said before, there's always plan B. Just don't bet the race and watch and learn.
