subject: Weakened By The End Of Each Push Factor Copper Face Adjustment - Domestic Air Conditioning, [print this page] 2009 years ago, three quarters of a large number of government investment in the stimulation of domestic electricity,
Home Appliances
,
Car
, The real estate industry have a better performance, along with the global money supply surplus, the largest copper prices rose more than 98.67%. However, the fourth-quarter pace of China's copper consumption will be seasonal slowdown in the world will gradually reduce the amount of money in circulation, one by one the factors that pushed copper prices decline, expected by the end of copper will be out of a temporary pullback.
Prospects for the domestic copper consumption
A single month last year, China's refined copper imports at 12 million tons, 300,000 tons this year jumped skip levels, an increase of more than 2 times. At the same time, the first 8 months this year, total domestic copper production increased 17%. View by industry, domestic copper consumption is mainly concentrated in electrical, appliance, automotive, real estate, the four sectors. Of which the largest proportion of the power industry. The first three quarters this year, four industries have a significant development.
Power industry is the first big consumer of copper, mainly used in generators, motors, transformer equipment. Among them, transformer winding, wiring, switching equipment in contact, contact with part of the conversion and the maximum amount of power transmission cables. These areas are an important national infrastructure investment component, believed to boost the role of copper consumption will be a long time. Proportion of domestic consumption of copper is the second largest industry, appliance industry. With single volume and total copper calculated home
Air conditioning
Copper is the first big industry. Appliance industry this year, inventories of copper were significantly lower than the first 4 years of reserves. From these points of view, the late business is expected to boost the complement of library behavior of copper consumption. In addition, this year's car, the real estate industry more than the maximum. These four industries accounted for 72% to domestic copper consumption share, you can explain the development of domestic investment spending momentum.
Global copper stocks surged
This year, the global refined copper production increased steadily, year on year growth despite weaker than copper, but has returned to previous levels of cumulative production. The third quarter of this year, gradually increasing the world's total inventory. COMEX slightly reduced, the proportion of the global total stocks lower, less impact. LME and the Shanghai Stock Exchange, showed a higher trend. September in, LME stocks increased mainly in Asia. As China imports less inventory accumulation in Asia. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has been a substantial increase in seven weeks straight. But the need to point out, the country's Reserve warehouse stored with 25 tons of copper stocks at the same time, with the non-ferrous metal prices, private accumulation of copper may be as high as 30 million tons, therefore, futures rising Copper stocks may be just "tip of the iceberg." Still concerned about the consumption market outlook. If the consumption good condition, early accumulation of inventories will gradually be digested, the price was not caused by strong resistance. And this year, total global stock and futures prices are not high negative correlation, single-day stock trend change in the price impact for the weak.
European copper consumption in the doldrums
Macroeconomic front, the steady rise of the domestic economy, there is growth in total electricity generation. The economic crisis in Europe and America still has deep impact, copper consumption has not improved significantly. However, the current European economic data, first the good performance of its economy, we are optimistic about a full recovery. Early next year, copper consumption in Europe and America will start spending that time together with China pushed copper prices. Post-acceleration of global monetary investment will slow, though governments will not change monetary policy aggressively, but can be expected in the fourth quarter of the excess money supply will push prices up significantly weaker than previous efforts.
This year China's investment policy has been made to stimulate the largest copper rose 98% during the year, the current lack of a new push into the power of copper which is the main reason for the recent pattern of the maintenance of turbulence. On the one hand the lack of strong momentum to drive up prices, on the other hand there are some high support force, more difficult to bring down price. Into the fourth quarter, the domestic copper consumption will fall seasonal, and Europe and the United States failed to revive the economy, support the global copper consumption, lack of strength, then at the end of copper or out of a pullback. But in the long run, economic recovery next year, Europe and the United States and the resumption of domestic consumption, will jointly boost copper prices, copper prices next year bull trend or the way that the shorter end of the callback.
