subject: Analysis Of Trends In The Evolution Of China's Foreign Trade Hardware Industry Can Be Found [print this page] First, the overall foreign trade growth will slow down.
Is expected from 2010 to the "Shier Wu," late in 2015, China's foreign trade volume will continue to grow, but the growth rate gradually declined. During this time, the volume of trade in U.S. dollar terms, will be an average annual growth rate of close to 10%, that is, trade will be slightly higher than the annual growth rate of domestic GDP growth, will also be higher than the global trade growth of about 4 percentage points .
Based on calculation, in 2015, the scale of China's foreign trade will rise to about 4 trillion in size, in the meantime, China will remain the world's largest trade body position. From the time of distribution, the financial crisis will occur after the resumption of foreign trade growth, combined with the inertia of foreign trade growth, so the next few years, trade growth will largely followed a "former high to low" trend.
Second, the structure will accelerate the upgrading of export products.
In the medium term, China's export products to high-end upgrade capability will be greatly improved, is conducive to promoting China's export structure to high-end, capital-intensive, especially the technology-intensive industrial upgrading.
It is noteworthy that many of China's current foreign trade, processing trade, in particular, is a foundry produce in a way, because my country does not control the design, branding, marketing channels, high value-added chain, causing export prices are low, the future of China's export products to industrial chain at both ends of the extension will significantly improve China's export unit price and the export of value-added. On the other hand, due to rising domestic costs, China's labor-intensive products or manufacturing sector's exports will face greater challenges, their production may occur to the central and western regions so that the elements to the lower cost areas overseas, the shift, China's labor-intensive the proportion of total export-oriented industries will decline.
Third, the proportion of processing trade continued to decline.
Processing trade in China's import and export trade has occupied an important position. Due to the cost of future increases and policy adjustments, is not conducive to the development of processing trade, the factors that will continue to increase, the processing trade from coastal developed areas outside the shift will continue to accelerate, and eventually led to the proportion of processing trade in total trade continues to decline. We expect that by 2015 or so, processing trade exports accounted for the proportion of China's total exports will decline to 40% or less.
Fourth, the scale will significantly reduce the surplus, trade balance leveling.
The next stage, subject to international market demand growth slowed, the domestic factor costs and other factors, China's export growth will slow significantly; by domestic industrialization process is accelerating and upgrading the industrial structure and consumption structure upgrading and other factors, imports increased speed will increase.
Generally speaking, China's import growth rate will be higher than export growth, long-term trade surplus will be greatly improved the situation, the trade surplus will be reduced, and even there the possibility of deficit in a particular year is expected around the year 2015, China's trade surplus will be greatly reduced and even leveling. The trade surplus decline in net exports will lead to trade on China's contribution to economic growth turned negative from positive, but it should be noted, the surplus dropped to reduce trade friction is conducive to a certain extent, improve the external environment for China's trade.
Fifth, China and emerging markets and the "BRIC" trade will increase.
The new century, while China's trade diversification strategy has made great progress, but developed countries still is China's largest export market, accounting for more than 70% of China's export markets.
In the medium term, on the one hand, the final trade products from global demand, emerging market countries, "BRIC" economic growth rate will exceed the developed economies, the former in the global economy and international trade, the share will be on the rise, the future China's general trade exports will also change the regional structure, the proportion of exports of developed countries will gradually fall in emerging markets and Russia, India and Pakistan will increase export proportion. On the import side, our country will increase from Africa, Australia, Latin America, Russia and other resources, power resources, imports of products.
On the other hand, from the International division of labor based on international trade in intermediate goods flows of view, the Asian region are likely to form more sophisticated production systems, production systems in Asia in China's position will change. Therefore, the next stage, China may accept Europe and the United States from Japan and South Korea and other multinational corporations to invest in the country engaged in processing trade production, in the "flying geese" pattern in the low-end of the division of labor began to invest in other economies in other countries engaged in the processing trade, production, in the "flying geese" pattern in the high-end division of labor changes, the corresponding trade flows will be reduced from the upper reaches of products imported from developed countries to developed countries, the flow of the final product exported to other developing countries exports of intermediate goods trade flows change to allow China and developing countries showed a larger increase in trade volume.
Sixth, the terms of trade will be improved to some extent.
The future of China's import and export prices are also significant changes will occur. On the one hand, China's export product mix after the upgrade, due to higher income elasticity of demand of these products, coupled with China's gradual access to technology, research and development, brands, channels of high value-added industrial chain links, and our impact on international prices, enhanced voice expected the average price of China's exports will be a big increase.
On the other hand, China's imports of goods, although the total amount of resources will increase, but the domestic policy adjustments and other factors will increase the efficient use of domestic resources, our resources will likely slow down the growth rate of imports of goods, in addition to prices for global resources after a pre - After a period of sharp rise, it is hard for a new round of rapid increases.
Therefore, the medium term, the average price of China's exports is expected to rise faster, and exceeded the growth rate of the average price of imports, China's terms of trade would reverse the deteriorating situation in the previous period, and have been gradually improved.
