subject: Southwest will enter the wet season water shares three concerns - water and electricity sector, the wet season - Electrical industry [print this page] Southwest will enter the wet season water shares three concerns - water and electricity sector, the wet season - Electrical industry
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2010 first quarter Electricity Consumption 969.5 billion kwh, a calendar year quarter, the highest consumption, as we anticipated. Terms of geographical distribution, high-energy region to restore electricity needs are significant. Ningxia (57.92%), Qinghai (55.45%), Inner Mongolia (41.14%) of the electricity growth rate reached 40%. Specific to the company, Inner Mongolia Huadian Power distribution units with high energy concentration region the highest proportion. Second, the low valuation of SDIC Electric Power also cause for concern.
Growth is expected in the second quarter fell slightly, in April direct supply chain power plant coal consumption decreased by about 6%. Although the second quarter of the country from north to south are starting to spring production, coupled with drought and other southwest, agricultural and rural production of electricity will also increase. But in the second quarter low season electricity throughout the year. Taking into account last year have begun to restore the electricity market, the base is relatively high compared with the first quarter, second quarter is expected to increase electricity consumption will drop slightly more than the overall balance of the country's electricity supply and demand. In addition, we keep track of direct supply power plant coal consumption in April daily average 3.34 million tons, slightly below the March level. Corresponds with the diameter difference in coal consumption is expected to charge the corresponding chain in April declined slightly by 5.7%.
Power industry earnings instability, fluctuating loss edge. As early as the end of this year, we have foreseen. As of the end of 2010, two thermal power industry pre-tax ROE and profitability levels were only 5.4% and 3.2%, the chain slipped. 2 months before industry-wide thermal power loss Number 533, a loss rate of up to 6.89 billion yuan. It is reported that from January to March although the industry is profitable, but we expect that, with inflation expected to gradually strengthen the Government then a legislator, repeated delays in tariff adjustments, so that the first quarter of this year, the incremental thermal power industry are not difficult to change the situation and increased profits the power industry there is the possibility of another loss.
Core indicators, the only positive indicators that the economy is improving the power industry. 1-3 month national Power Equipment Cumulative average utilization hours for 1125 hours, 117 hours more than last year. Among them, the average utilization hours of thermal power equipment for the 1285 hours, 182 hours more than last year.
Xinjiang vision worth the wait, Power supply Structure conceived change. Government of the next decade, according to Xinjiang Coal industry development plan, 2010? 2015 Lanzhou-Xinjiang line through the expansion reconstruction, Lan Yu Lan a new pair of double-track railway and the construction of the initial realization of large-scale commercial coal East lose. By 2020, Xinjiang's coal 500 million tons to achieve the East, about 2009, China's total coal consumption in thermal power of 30% or so. Although much water can not quench thirst, but can be expected that the coal supply and demand equilibrium subtle changes will occur. New Energy And can gradually increase the proportion of renewable energy generation, a corresponding reduction in thermal coal demand, coal prices rising too fast inhibition has some impetus.
Investment logic: First, the performance impact of drought on water and electricity is expected to be reflected in the market has been more fully. From 6 months, the Southwest will gradually enter the wet season. If the regime will change for the better, there may be some investment opportunities. We recommend that investors concerned about the water and electricity companies located in southwestern Xichang Power, Wenshan Electric Power. The former also has the assets into the expected. Second, the introduction of margin trading, the value of hydropower resources and attention have selected the subject of the power industry margin blue-chip Yangtze Power.
