subject: Silicon Photovoltaic Project Investment In China Before The Judge Must Be Aware Of The 4 - Silicon [print this page] Opportunities and challenges: Expansion of solar PV demand led to acute shortage of polysilicon soaring prices Affected by economic crisis, Semiconductor And photovoltaic industries of the sharp decline in demand for polysilicon Domestic enterprises to invest in polysilicon can not simply rely on existing technology Different power consumption level of domestic enterprises, level uneven Related data: Since 2004, polysilicon prices have soared, in 2008 up to 450 U.S. dollars / kg In 2008, the annual PV market installed capacity of new 5.5GW, 2007 annual new installed capacity of 2.4GW Domestic enterprises and high power consumption in integrated than in the 300kWh/kg, low power consumption is about in the 200kWh/kg
PV expansion led to acute shortage of demand, since 2004, polysilicon prices have soared, in 2008 up to 450 U.S. dollars / kg, silicon photovoltaic industry chain to become the darling of investors, investment polysilicon expansion project continued, mainly 3, the forces: First, the world's seven top ten plant expansion (the United States, MEMC and Hemlock, Norway's REC, Japan's Mitsubishi, SumitomoTitanium and Tokuyama, Germany, Wacker), cost leadership maturity of the technology of these enterprises; Second, downstream photovoltaic business extends to the upstream plant, such as Suntech, LDK; third is capitalized diversified investment company, such as the Universal Group (Universal silicon peak), the refinement Group (refinement Shaoxing Solar Energy), Tianyuan Group (Shi Ji Xinyuan) and so on.
But by the economic crisis, the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries of the sharp decline in demand for polysilicon, since the 4th quarter of 2008 since the polysilicon prices have been declining, as the current price of about 110 U.S. dollars / kg, pre-announced investment projects are doing extension of investment adjustment, manufacturers are under-capacity condition, overheated investment, when the balance of supply and demand become hot research topic.
The industry agreed to revitalize the local economy of attention on the U.S. government, Japan, Europe, and China, CCID Consulting believes that government procurement and subsidies silicon photovoltaic industry is certainly an important element of development, but under the operation of market mechanisms as Industry, China's silicon photovoltaic project investment must be known before the judge the following four, that industrial chain relations, technical characteristics, market demand characteristics, cost structure.
Chain relations judge Silicon PV industry chain length and technical, technological aspects of each check, the investment can not be seen as an independent company conduct pre-investment upstream and downstream relations are the primary considerations.
Crystalline silicon solar divided by grade level and different Electronic Grade silicon. Solar grade silicon production chain, including: industrial silicon? Polysilicon? Polysilicon ingots? Wafers; industrial silicon? Polysilicon? Silicon rods? Silicon. Electronic grade silicon production chain, including: industrial silicon? Polysilicon? Silicon? Silicon. Photovoltaic solar grade silicon material is the upstream industry, materials, solar PV industry chain, including silicon material? Silicon? Battery Film? Battery Components? Applications five links; electronic grade silicon is the semiconductor industry's upstream material. Can be said that a long chain of silicon photovoltaic industry, industry segment obvious contradiction between supply and demand because industry and photovoltaic industry in China in the early stages of the features, among all sectors of the industry chain Cooperation By the market, technical and technological aspects of containment, such as cells and modules part of the constraints on the existence of the phenomenon of technological processes, thin silicon wafer technology has been the development of materials technology in recent years from the initial wafer to 180 m or 330 m thinner Development (Germany FhG-ISE developed 40 m silicon solar cell efficiency of 20%), the study shows that the grain boundary of polycrystalline silicon films as weak and fragile and can limit the minimum thickness to 100 m. Thin silicon can achieve cost reduction, which requires companies to achieve silicon wafer cutting technology innovation, while its downstream requirements needed cells and modules part of technological upgrading process, otherwise, processing prone to brittle behavior, but in a material waste and costs.
Therefore, business investment and not simply as individual behavior, before commissioning of the upstream and downstream partnerships need to do adequate research, mainly in cooperation with the intention, production status and trends, technical and technological suitability, etc. side.
Skills to judge In polysilicon production, foreign manufacturers have long been the implementation of technology 7 blockade, and there are films and compound the possibility of technological substitution, the domestic enterprises to invest in polysilicon can not simply rely on existing technology, the technical ability to consider before investing The first two elements
Polysilicon market has been monopolized by the Global 7 giant, China in Luoyang in 2007, previously only two polycrystalline silicon and Emei Semiconductor companies, foreign high-purity polysilicon manufacturing costs 40 U.S. dollars / kg or so, China's manufacturing cost of about In the 80 U.S. dollars / kg around, and there is a large gap between the level of foreign. 2005-2007 Foreign silicon business and production capacity in table 1. Therefore, if only to domestic Chinese enterprises to invest in silicon technology level projects, will be significantly behind the seven manufacturers.
Table 12005-2007 silicon on foreign companies and the yield capacity
The same time, alternative technologies also must be assessed before production elements, namely film and compound technology. Thin film silicon solar cells less demand for raw materials, is seen as suitable for future large-scale production of low-cost solar cells, however, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of such a low battery, if this solar cell conversion efficiency be enhanced, it is may be the future mainstream technologies; compound semiconductor and organic materials have been applied, in theory, the photoelectric conversion efficiency compound semiconductor material than silicon with high, but still flawed, for example, compound polycrystalline films CIGS (Cu-In- Ga-Se) of the conversion efficiency of 13%, but indium is very scarce, GaAs films arsenic compounds (As) of large-scale use will bring a lot of environmental problems.
Although films and small compounds, alternative technologies, but wishing to enter the silicon PV industry enterprises, the investment risk is important, therefore, put into operation before the need for their technical ability to do a comprehensive assessment.
