subject: Early Deflation Policy Will Continue To Pressure [print this page] Regulation of the domestic real estate, the debt crisis in Europe, the United States the second round of loose monetary policy, domestic factors such as macro-control policies since the subject headings listed stock index futures. This year for twelfth five-year plans first year, economic structure transformation brings to the society more vitality. Good index to support the economic center of gravity on the move, but the beginning of the market, we believe that under the influence of a series of political pressure, the market will be overwhelmed.
Domestically, the two years 2009 and 2010 Gucci bags Super-currency inflation led to still larger in the first half of 2011. 2009, 9.59 trillion yuan of new credit, new credit in 2010 is expected to 7.6-8 trillion yuan, the amount of two days of credit to a certain extent contributed to the flood of liquidity. Meanwhile, money supply growth from the point of view in recent years are at a historic high, M1-year growth rate of up to nearly 40% year on year M2 growth rate up to nearly 30%. Money supply growth in the second half of 2010 despite the decline, but still remain high status, still more than the historical growth rate under normal, also broke through the beginning of the government target. Extraordinary inflation and money supply contributed to the current top priority to price stability target in 2011, prudent monetary policy is the norm for the return of history, and this is bound to the current monetary policy control.
External liquidity stimulus for domestic inflation is still quite a lot
Europe and America, respectively, in 2010 Gucci outlet debt crisis and the weak recovery into the quagmire, the United States only through loose monetary policy to stimulate the economy. In 2011, the U.S. economic recovery will continue to face various difficulties; the current deleveraging process has not ended. Although generous in the Fed's rescue measures, the economy fell sharply again, less likely, but in the U.S. economy is not optimistic about the prospects for recovery, the Fed does not raise interest rates this year should be a high probability event. Similarly, the recovery is weak, the second quantitative easing out of the probability is very small, do not rule out the re-introduction of loose monetary policy. External market liquidity will loose transmitted to China through various mechanisms, which makes it harder for domestic regulation. Meanwhile, the euro area economy is the current world economy is another important concern, even if the euro-zone governments have to tighten fiscal policy, but because the euro zone debt problem can be solved overnight, the future still may be repeated.
Domestic inflation and the possibility of further spread of
Superposition of liquidity at home and abroad, increasing the intensity of the beginning of the possibility of monetary policy. Current inflation are likely to spread, particularly from food to non-food spread, this situation indicates that if there is a supply shock, the price will be conducted along the chain from top to bottom. Although the Government some time ago a series of measures to make the price signs of stabilization, but the short term may not be effective, particularly in January-February 2011, during the New Year and Spring Festival coincides with the peak season consumption and inflation remain high probability of increasing the chain, Short-term growth of 5% inflation now seems difficult to decline. Consider the policy lag one or two quarters of 2010, the earliest the end of regulation began in March of this year show results. From the beginning, the current inflation still exist many uncertainties, inflationary pressure is still large.
In view of internal and external pressure, the central bank in 2011 Gucci outlet set the tone for the history of prudent monetary policy is the return of normal year-end meeting the central bank has clearly stated: the next phase to continue the use of a variety of conventional monetary policy instruments and to further improve the monetary policy tools, and These tools include the difference between the use of dynamic adjustment of the reserve, with interest rates, deposit reserve ratio, open market operations and other conventional monetary policy tools. Therefore, the central bank or in the first half, especially in the first quarter to continue to take a series of monetary control means the issue of fighting inflationary pressures, policy tightening effect to suppress the index upward.
Therefore, early suppression of bull market, the more obvious factors, but the downside of that space is limited, consumption, emerging industries, banking sector index, or will constitute a strong support. Particularly the largest banks weight plates, the current value of interval underestimation in history, the banking industry in 2011 for 20% of the profit growth can be expected. In view of valuation, futures limited downside. Overall, the beginning of sustained oscillations of the mean probability of a larger pattern, investors should buy low, sell high throw to the strategy. Along the interval more than just profit, and a small amount of short selling, along the interval is empty just profit, more than a single admission. Second half of the economy is getting better, in the absence of major policy control, the stock center of gravity upward.
