subject: Black Swans & Black Ash - State Of Affairs Thinking Is Key To Strategic Planning & Management [print this page] Black Swans Black Swans
Any discussion of recent directions for strategic coming up with and management must inevitably address the growing dialogue around the accuracy of the forecasting models used as the idea of call-making.
Decision Making and Coming up with Under Low Levels of Predictability, appearing in the International Journal of Forecasting, argues that correct forecasting is not possible. Uncertainty is the business as usual scenario. Its authors, so, introduce four principles to advance strategic thinking under unsure eventualities, including challenging mental frames, understanding human motivations, applying crisis management and assessing strategic options during a structured option-against-state of affairs evaluation.
One among the authors Nassem Nicholas Taleb - the analyst who forged new ground in risk analysis and call making by that specialize in a way to flip a scarcity of knowledge and understanding into call-making - is ready to unleash an updated edition of his best-selling book the Black Swan this month, in that he plans to tell us a way to operationalize this lack of knowledge. Rather than building more complicated models, to face globalization, he can argue for creating our structures less complex.
Qualitative Intelligence
Along the same lines of thinking, a Harvard Business Review case study in May's edition argues that qualitative intelligence is needed to manage in a very world of an "ambiguous system of systems."In Beyond the Numbers: Building Your Qualitative Intelligence, Roger Martin saliently questions whether or not our quantitative models and predictive analysis skills are up to the task in an exceedingly crisis situation. Qualitative intelligence will be added to a corporation by taking a Systems Read of the Organization , revealed previously by this author. Do expect qualitative intelligence to play a bigger role alongside quantitative analysis in organizational management in the future.
Black Ash
A standard theme in our analysis is that strategic management is being drilled down deeper into organizations. Thence, coaching and group facilitation of middle and senior managers, to develop specific strategic management skills such as strategic thinking, that includes state of affairs thinking, is changing into additional common.
The airline crisis created by the Icelandic volcanic ash highlighted the need for scenario thinking/planning capability in any respect levels of a corporation to deal with crisis situations. Heaps of 'what ifs' were raised throughout the grounding of European planes, but not everybody had the tools to assess the choices and their impact. Risk managers are now talking about preparing for "black ash" events, clearly a play on "black swan," or low chance events that are arduous, if in the least possible, to predict.
For over twenty 3 years, Stephen has helped businesses, government agencies and non-profits organizations in Asia to learn and apply Strategic Management and Innovation to their organizations to sustain and improve long run performance. He has successfully led and facilitated numerous "live" strategic planning efforts and in-company senior management development programs, for a wide selection of organizations as well as multi-national firms, small-medium enterprises and government agencies.
