subject: OBAMA AT THE HELM: A New Begining or Over-Bloated Optimism [print this page] OBAMA AT THE HELM: A New Begining or Over-Bloated Optimism
OBAMA AT THE HELM:
A New Beginning or over-bloated Optimism?
(Abdulrahman Mele-27th November 2008)
From a school named Obama, a mock election in which he beat McCain 64 6 and a public holiday to commemorate his victory in Kenya, to jubilant celebrations across the world and campaign stickers as far away as Nigeria, Barak Obama is observably not just a president for the United States but a global leader. The fact that the United States is the only Superpower on earth capable of influencing global issues is never felt and realised more. Incumbent president Bush described his victory as awesome' and said it will be a stirring sight' to see Obama in the White House.
After a long battle the race for the White House is finally over and Barak Hussein Obama and Joe Biden eventually beat John McCain and Sarah Palin to get to the Presidency. All through the campaigning Obama remain relatively calm in the face of fierce negative campaigning by his rival McCain and several accusations including that he has no foreign policy experience and that he is a Muslim. He played down all these and several other accusations and instead relies on the economy as the basic priority of his campaign. He did well in this regard given the fact that the United States is in the worse economic crises in its history after the Great Depression of the 1920s. The unsavoury wars in Iraq and Afghanistan do obviously pin down McCain because of his inevitable closeness to Bush party-wise and for the fact that in the early days of campaigning, McCain had made no secret his desire for more global military adventure.
Weeks before the elections, all opinion polls conducted by several organisations pointed that Obama will win with a considerable margin most placed him on average 6 points ahead of his Republican rival. When polls opened at midnight on Tuesday 4th November, the indices are not changed as McCain has been claiming they would all alone. Obama won in a historic landslide taking previously traditional Republic states and swapping 349 Electoral College votes at the end 79 above the win minimum requirement of 270. The 47 years old Chicago Senator became the first African American to get this close to the presidency and minutes later the first black president of the United States.
What made this years US presidential elections important are obvious; the world wants to see how the US will undo the global carnage situation president Bush has created, it wants to see what the US do about Iran and Russia, it wants to see if American democracy has really came of age to let a black man occupy the White House. But for everything, his victory means a lot to the world and particularly to the United States. Just decades ago, states across the country have segregation laws. When Obama was born in 1961, nobody would have bet on that he stands the chance of ruling the United States. But after decades of struggles and suffering characterised by numerous civil liberty and equality movements, what would have been a wild dream eventually become a reality. Indeed, Martin Luther King Jr's dream has came true maybe he truly had had a dream. For others like Jesse Jackson and Oprah Winfrey who shed tears at his acceptance speech, it will probably be the most memorable day of their lives.
For everything, the world expects a lot from the new young leader. But he has so many things on his table most in bad states. There is the dilemma of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan of which he promised to end that of Iraq' and increase military presence in Afghanistan but nobody knows how this will work or if it will be possible at all. There is the issue of dwindling and continuously unsavoury relations with Russia over several issues including NATO expansion and the proposed US Missile defence Shield. Then there is the issue to normalising relations with Iran and Syria and most importantly but not at all easier the Palestine-Israeli problem.
How Obama reciprocate the good wishes of people across the world is decisive in mending relations spoiled by eight years of arrogant diplomatic relations under his predecessor. But the expectations of both the American people and the world at large on the new leader are obviously over bloated; He simply cannot deliver to the extent people do expect but he will probably make a remarkable change for the better.
The economy is the most important question at home in America - thus all through the transition period he was preoccupied with how to handle the economy and seldom talks of foreign policy direction. But Iraq and the sort of international politicking that led the Marines land there in the first place are the major global concerns. For the economy, the future is gloom. Renowned economists and philosophers are adamant in the face of hopeful remarks by politicians that the problem will persist for sometime to come. They silently seem to assert that it will certainly take a miracle to reverse the United States and the major world capitalistic economies from recession. Besides, what everyone seems to forget is the actual cause of the predicament and what the world will do to avert its reoccurrence.
How he handles foreign relations will also go a long way in restating nations back on the way of global diplomacy and away from military confrontation. But even before he was elected, he expressed his desire to withdraw US forces from Iraq and increase their number in Afghanistan. This, in American perspective may seem logical but almost everyone outside the United States and especially in the Muslim world knows this is a fatal error. Iraq is an obvious quagmire without straightforward exit. There are indicators that he will obviously drift from these promises' but withdrawing the Marines at this stage will certainly mean a civil war in Iraq and increasing US military presence in Afghanistan will mean more civilian death there.
Another hotspot on the global diplomacy landscape awaiting the new president is Palestine and how to continue with the traditional American stance of defending Israel's crimes against the Palestinians. His choice of Hilary Clinton as Secretary of State was not good news to Palestinians as she was traditionally seen as a staunch supporter of Israel.
On relations with Russia, he will need to do a lot and especially take the implicit olive branch Midvedev hands him when he remarked that the new American leader will likely be more diplomatic and less arrogant than his predecessor. Both Russia and the United States however, knew very well they cannot afford a military confrontation with each other even a proxy. But Russia is taking with genuine worry the proposed Missile Defence Shield in Eastern Europe as the United States too is genuinely worried about Russia's actions including the proposed nuclear programme in Venezuela.
Likely scenarios will be that the economy might wane or wax and this is largely the result of pure coincidence though his economic team will boast of being behind it all if it worked positively. As country after country delve into recession, the United States is not insusceptible to the trend and the same unpredicted factors that led to the present crises will - for the foreseeable future at least- determine which direction the economy takes.
In Iraq Obama will battle with how to withdraw his forces from Iraq but this will not be easy task. But then the Iraq-US security-pack' will certainly pass through and get the approval of the puppet parliamentarians to enable US forces remain in the desert country till late 2011 and maybe by then something would have happened to opened a wider and handy exit for the Marines if at all they ever intended to vacate otherwise the sporadic skirmishes will continue and the Americans would sit comfortably as occupiers.
For Afghanistan, nothing significant will happen as a result of the proposed troop surge save an escalation in the fighting and more civilian deaths from NATO's blithe operations. The violation of Pakistan's territorial integrity will continue and more people mostly innocent civilians would die there and nobody will know what is actually taking place out there not only because there are not reporters there but also because very few people seem to regard the cloak-shrouded bearded men and their veil-hooded female folk living among these mountains called tribal areas' as real human beings.
The Arab-Israeli problem will remain unsolved and more bloodshed is likely as the militants are now convinced of international hypocrisy and that the so-called Quartet will never give them their rights. Hamas and Hizbullah will thus get stronger but increasingly isolated as Abbas hug Israeli and Western proposals that will probably make him the guardian of a vaporous peace process' to his death like Arafat.
The young black president will obviously like to talk with Iran and Syria to avoid opening a new front of confrontation which the United States knows it cannot handle amidst a dwindling economy and two foreign wars. But Israel will most likely thwart this effort at diplomatic solution to the issue of Iranian nuclear programme in trying to maintain its nuclear monopoly in the region.
At the end of it all, nothing significant will happen as a result of Obama's presidency and slogan of change. At least people would be disappointed but mostly not because he achieved nothing but because they have invested too much hope and expectation in him.
