subject: When Handicapping a Horse Race, How Many Races Should Be Used to Determine Class and Speed? [print this page] When Handicapping a Horse Race, How Many Races Should Be Used to Determine Class and Speed?
Knowing which horse has faced the toughest competition and which horse runs the fastest on the average is crucial to determining the true value of each horse in a race. The reason that handicappers want to know the horse's true, or fair value, is because that is what they base their wagering on. For instance, if they know that a horse has a probability of winning half the time, based on its recent speed and class, then the handicappers know the horse has to pay a minimum of twice what they bet on it. If they bet $100 to win, then they need to get a minimum of $200 back just to break even, because the horse will win once for every two times it races.
I know this is elementary for many of you, but there will be some beginners reading this and they may not know that. So when handicapping a horse race, a good handicapper starts with the ability of the horse determined by the speed and class of the horse. Just looking at the horse's most recent race isn't enough, however, and you will have to look farther back. But just how far back should you look, and is it determined by time, or the number of races?
This is just an opinion and it is based on my own experience, but I usually use 10 races and don't like to look back more than a year. Then, of course, I have to factor in recent form (I look for what I call 'fit and ready horses'). Age and recency certainly have to be considered as well. For instance, when looking at a three year old, a horse that is still developing, I have to factor the improvement and maturing element into the equation.
On the other hand, when looking at an older horse, I may have to factor in decline. There is also the matter of recent form. The form cycle varies from horse to horse and also from trainer to trainer. Some have them ready to race on the first race after a lay off while others need to race them into shape. I wish I could give you one formula that would solve this problem, but I can't. The only thing I can tell you is that I use two computer programs to crunch the numbers, but then I use my own experience. There is only one way for you to get experience and that is by handicapping many races, keeping notes, and referring to your notes to rate your progress.
Note keeping and checking on your own progress is boring and sometimes painful, but I think it is very important. It is how you know how well you did, how well you are doing, and if you are making progress. It is also how you know what to change. If you have an experienced handicapper to work with, that is certainly a plus and will help you to move forward rapidly in your handicapping. If you don't have a pro who is a friend, I recommend you hire a handicapping service and learn from watching what they pick. You will gradually learn how many races should be used for each class of horse and each situation.
