subject: Textile Production Capacity Expansion Needs Of Fast + Slow: Spandex Or Current Inflection Point [print this page] Polyurethane industry is the current price increase is to accelerate the drive once again the top? Look Looked head, stare to see the oil price, where the turning point of spandex, the industry better than we, and they further explore the risk factors.
April 9, spandex 40D spandex industry associations will be unified price raised to 59000-60000 yuan / ton. If the price increase in 2009 to make polyurethane industry as a whole turnaround, then this year's price increase has been so completely out of weakness. That's research, part of the polyurethane business gross margin exceeded 20% of the current reality. Price increases, the market appears to further optimism, forget about the risk, spandex price inflection point in the near future, will unconsciously.
While industry associations have been price increases, but manufacturers of the polyurethane 40D downstream of the orders quoted price is still at 57,000 yuan / ton. As the downstream textile and garment enterprises are more cautious on the follow-up orders, tend to use pre-accumulation of stock, dealers are eager to profit shipping rates. Clearly, to reach 60,000 yuan / ton target price also need a process.
Office of experts Jiang Jianren Keqiao textile index that the current round of business cycle, the highest price spandex 40D will reach 65,000 yuan / ton, and then will form a downward inflection point, at present there are 14% spandex 40D up to the price increase space. Although prices continue to call spandex, but Jiang Jianren that the broker on the spandex performance of listed companies forecast is too high, "2010 earnings per share should be 1 yuan."
Limited room for further demand
Spandex has textile "industry MSG," said, as the fabric additives, amount of only 3%, so relatively easy to raise prices. Its role is to make fabric soft and elastic. Jiang Jianren that although high-grade polyurethane material necessities, but the amount of Quefei unchanged. If spandex price is too high, the downstream part of the fabric at the expense of reduced flexibility in spandex content, or for the sake of lower cost alternative materials selection.
Downstream of the current strong demand for spandex recovery, including yarn (spandex demand accounted for 85%) capacity utilization is about 80% warp operating rate close to 80%, while the highest when the economy, including yarn starts was 90%, actually not much room for improvement. The current overall capacity utilization rate of textile industry 85%, the best time to have only 90%.
Textile industry is the strong recovery in domestic demand to ensure that, based on export has been greatly improved, Jiang Jianren introduction, from textile exports, the current from the peak before the crisis and 20% of the space can be restored, textile exports peaked , the spandex has peaked.
Exports continued to recover, but the needs of downstream textile incremental growth might slow, mainly because of labor is limited. Shanghai Textile Holding (Group) Company, Vice President Zhu Yong introduction textile enterprises now operating rate of orders and generally very full, to further increase productivity, but the workers are not enough, and now Shanghai, 1,500 yuan / month salary of textile workers have been unable to make line stability, and high mobility.
Labor-intensive industry, if not solve people's problems, limited capacity growth will be conductive to the needs of the upstream spandex, which has become more prominent contradictions industry.
Zhu Yong introduction, the financial crisis in the textile industry survive the situation had improved, the first two months this year, export orders full inventory is subject to foreign retailers to fill the demand driven. But did not last long, garment and textile exports in March year on year, the chain dropped, even more than in March 2009 was also low, demand for foreign stocks make up the decline. Can be seen that the overall consumption abroad is still at a low ebb. Zhu Yong that, while exports are on the increase of space, but a time for space manner, without the possibility of explosive growth.
Than-expected production capacity expansion
Polyurethane industry, gross margins and oil prices are related to the maximum margin of listed companies, 40% in oil prices to 140 dollars / barrel, while the overall gross margin was 30% in industry, has attracted large amounts of capital involved.
Polyurethane industry cycle is very short, only 2-3 years. According to the first head of the textile web Wang forward, currently forming capacity of 10,000 tons only 400 000 000 -5 100 million yuan of funds, and a years time can be put into production. In addition, the technical barriers are getting lower and lower, "the high threshold of five years ago, and now even the localization of the machinery equipment."
According to statistics, the fourth quarter of 2010, the industry will have Yantai Spandex Spandex (002,254, stock it), Hyosung, Zhuhai, Jiang Su Taiguang, Hangzhou Blue Peacock, INVISTA Foshan, SHAOXING sea nearly 4 million tons of new production capacity. With the improvement in export, the new spandex production capacity expansion plans are beginning to emerge, only listed companies, for example, Yantai Spandex on March 15 announced the new annual output of 7,000 tons on the spandex comfort items, is expected to put into production within 14 months. The production of this defunct companies are rebuilding to restore production capacity, such as rings spandex has been reorganized, it is understood the plan, up to 10,000 tons capacity.
Spandex down two years ago, when the inflection point produced, high domestic CPI, the government has increased efforts to tighten the same time, rising labor costs, the appreciation of RMB, the new spandex production capacity expansion to the plight of the situation facing the industry.
