subject: Preparation is the Precursor of Luck [print this page] Preparation is the Precursor of Luck Preparation is the Precursor of Luck
Yesterday I wrote a bit about overcoming adversity at the poker table. I wrote about the nature of adversity and how poker is not played to win a hand or even to win a session, rather, poker is played to minimize one's errors or mistakes. Put more positively, poker is all about making the right decisions as often as possible. While I lost money yesterday, I was satisfied with my overall play. There was little I would do differently. It was just one of those days.
Today, I didn't play differently. In fact, I played about the same percentage of hands as I played yesterday, I raised about as many times per 100 hands as I did yesterday. The difference was that today the probabilities were more normal. I won the hands I expected to win. I wasn't drawn out on nor did I have a smaller full house than my opponents. My point is that what happened today was more in keeping with a long term approach to the game rather than focusing of a single hand or day of play.
The Fish at the Table
It didn't hurt to have a fish at the table. In just 3 hands I played against one opponent I earned three large pots. In each pot my opponent went all in with second best and in one hand he actually was drawing dead after the flop. In each of these three hands he went broke and in all but the last hand he replenished his stack. When he left after the third beating I nearly cried. It is so sad when someone playing so poorly leaves the table.
There is an old saying among poker players that goes, Don't go broke falling in love with a single pair. I think there is room for expansion of this wise advice. Don't go broke falling in love with bottom (top or middle) pair or two pair or bottom set. In other words, if you remember the idea that everything depends on everything then you will never forget to put yourself in your opponent's shoes as you explore a hand during play.
Have a Checklist
I keep a mental checklist as I am making difficult decisions. I also use the checklist when I am making easy decisions. The checklist forces me to think about the move I am contemplating in a logical way.
What is the size of my stack relative to my opponent's stack?
What is the texture of the board?
What is my opponent likely to hold as a range of hands on this street?
Why am I thinking about betting, raising, calling or folding?
What is the strength of my hand?
How many outs do I have to complete a hand?
What is the probability I will make my hand?
What is the pot offering me to make a call?
Should I consider implied odds in this particular case?
What is my opponent likely to do if I bet (raise, call or fold) in this instance?
What do I know about my opponent's style?
Running through this mental list, especially when I have a tough decision to make is a calming exercise that focuses on making the correct decision. It is partly a mathematical decision making tool and partly a psychological evaluation tool that explores a variety of choices available and helps narrow those choices to the most correct action.
Keeping Records
While a checklist is important during play, accurate records are important in post play analysis. In poker, as in many things in life, one is either getting better or stagnating. The way to be a better poker player is to study the game and study your game in particular. I have a record of every hand I have played online because I use poker tracking software to track everything I do at the tables. I print out specific records on a weekly basis looking for leaks in my game that need plugging as well as for strengths in my game I can capitalize upon.
In live games, my records are not so complete. I keep a record book of times I play, buy-in amounts, winnings and losses, time of day, type of table, casino and number of players when I sat down. I also write a brief narrative that explores trends and problems I observed at the table. While not as complete as the poker tracking software available to online players, keeping records of live games is a valuable tool that will help you identify leaks in your game.
Prepare, Study, Win
Study is the backbone of preparation. I read poker books, I study my game through the records I keep, I practice using poker practice software, I study probabilities and odds of specific common occurrences at the poker table. Without this level of commitment I would be merely a casual player. I think of it like playing scales on the piano for a pianist. Playing scales and finger exercises prepares one for playing with confidence when pride is on the line. In poker it is no different. Nothing takes the place of practice, defining one's style, and playing thousands upon thousands of hands. Nothing supplements practice like analyzing one's own play as objectively as possible.
The End Game
The end game in poker is not decided in a single hand, a day of play, rather it is decided over a long period of time, months, years, decades. If one plays with this understanding then tough days or great days are all part of the larger world of probabilities. Whether one is winning big or loosing big over a period of time, the only relevant question is were you playing your best poker? If the answer is no then you have some work to do. If the answer is yes then you also have some work to do. In poker, as in life, one cannot simply rest on past accomplishments.
