subject: Evaluating Made Hands On The Flop [print this page] Evaluating Made Hands On The Flop Evaluating Made Hands On The Flop
Making quick evaluations of made hands on the flop is far too simplistic to assure profitable play. "Oh," they think, "I've made top pair." Or I have a set, or I have a flush draw or a straight draw. This thinking leads one to play each top pair, set, trips, flush draw or straight draw in the same way, regardless of the relative strength of the hand. All too often I see players continue to call or raise with only top pair against a very scary board. Of course, I generally don't mind if I have a monster or my hand is quite strong because I want to build the pot in that situation. But narrow, simplistic thinking is one leak that one must plug to be successful. To expand one's thinking it is important to understand the subtleties of variance that impact the strength of one's holdings on the flop. Decisions made here impact on profitability and, therefore, are quite important. Generally, five categories of hands on the flop are recognized by the poker community. They bare summarizing:
Monsters: A hand strong enough to win over 75% to 80% of the time. Unless you flop a Royal Flush there are always draws that will beat you so no hand is 100% (except the Royal Flush). Betting for value to build the pot and not eliminate your opponents is the correct strategy for monster hands. Monsters don't come along very often. Make the most of them.
Very Strong: A hand that will will the majority of the time. Build the pot if it is small with value bets but if it is already big protect your hand by betting to eliminate opponents with weaker hands.
Strong: Strong hands often win but, and this is the most important but, they are vulnerable to draws and bigger pairs or sets. Rarely fold a strong hand at the flop, rather, call or bet to protect your hand.
Marginal: Your hand has a chance to win but the board is scary and your opponents are fierce. If you believe you can eliminate one or more of your opponents bet or raise to eliminate. If your opponents push back consider folding now or at the turn. Making big lay-downs is a mark of expert play and must be mastered to become profitable in the long run.
Poor: Your hand has little or no chance of being best. Bet into weak opponents but generally fold to aggressive moves by opponents. The one exception is if the pot is so large that you are getting the right price to call but be careful to properly evaluate the odds before betting with a poor hand.
Let's look at some examples of each category. An example of a monster is 4s-4c with a flop of Kh-4d-8s. Your set is good here and will take down a pot over 80% of the time. Of course you must be concerned about an over-set but that is unlikely. There are no straight or flush draws apparent on this board. If the board pairs you have a full house. If the case 4 appears you have quads. No need to eliminate any opponents here. Bet for value and build the pot. A very strong hand looks something like this.
Ac-Kc with a flop of Kd-7s-2h. Top pair with the best kicker is often a winning hand when there are no apparent straight of flush draws. An opponent holding a King with a lesser kicker is drawing mostly dead with 3 outs to pair his kicker. Someone holding a seven or deuce with no ace has only 5 outs. No other strong hands are available to opponents with this flop. Your KK is most likely good here. Build the pot.
Qh-Qs on a flop of Ks-8h-2c is a strong hand. Your pocket pair is just a middle pair being an under-pair to the Ks. If someone holds a king your queens are no good here. On the other hand, if you hold the best hand the likelihood of being outdrawn is quite small, just 3 outs. A paired board gives you 2 pair, and you have two more outs for the queen to improve. If someone has a king, you only have 2 outs. This hand, while strong, is actually on the low end of the continuum of strong hands, nearly marginal. Push against opponents but be prepared to toss the queens in the muck if challenged aggressively.
As-8s with a flop of Qh-8d-3c is an example of a marginal hand. You only have middle pair but your kicker is best. You may have the best hand at this point but even if not you have 5 outs to two pair or to trips and 9 outs to a backdoor flush draw although those outs must be discounted to 4-5 outs as runner-runner spades has a low probability. Still you have 9-10 outs to improve here. There are a lot of draws that beat you. If someone holds a queen you are second best already. A set of threes is a possibility and there are an additional 6 outs for opponents to better your middle pair depending on their holdings. Play with caution. If your are challenged aggressively consider a fold with holdings like these. If you are first to act, however, act with aggression and hope to eliminate weaker hands.
Finally, an example of a poor hand. Ad-3d with a flop of As-Js-Th. Sure you have top pair here but there are straight and flush draws of which you have none and your kicker is worthless if someone holds an ace as your kicker is likely to be no good. If someone holds KQ you are drawing dead here. An ace with a larger kicker beats you. An opponent with 2 spades has a 35% chance of hitting a spade on the turn or river to beat you. Some battles are best not fought and this is one of them. Later I will consider hands in which you hold drawing cards to straights or flushes but that is for another time.
