subject: Wither Nigeria in 2013? [print this page] Wither Nigeria in 2013? Wither Nigeria in 2013?
WITHER NIGERIA IN 2013?
BY
Sunday Adole Jonah,
Department of Physics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria
(A reflection on the Nigerian state @ 50)
Thisday newspaper of 18th August 2009 reported that in anticipation of Nigeria breaking up in the year 2013 various military, intelligence, and media personnel under the auspices of the United States government were convened to specially war-game the Nigeria state scenario for 2013. Even projections as per the number of U.S troops to be committed to the Nigerian theatre in 2013 have been made. Recently, a stalwart of the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU), Dr. Festus Iyayi, pointed out that the timeline for the split of the Nigeria state projected by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is circa 2015 to 2020. Only recently Nigeria was listed amongst some dozen states that are obviously failing or have failed, viz: Somalia, Ivory Coast, Zimbabwe, Congo D.R., Burma, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, and Haiti.
Is the Nigeria state headed for a sensational break-up? Various intelligence and economic agencies have different parameters and indicators that they use to gauge the health of any nation. The obvious is weak instruments of governance, especially in terms of enforcing law and order. When the citizenry of a nation act with impunity without a sense of direction, it is obvious that the centre would no longer hold and rag-tag reactionaries could threaten the very existence of that nation. The government of Nigeria has abdicated its responsibilities in the educational, health, infrastructural, etc., sectors and its citizens are just surviving, hardly living in the real
context of the word. Public officials steal public funds with glee and they are never punished for their offences; it is as if they are encouraged to do just this because these same people are "honoured" with various merit, national, and traditional awards. The masses have lost a sense of law and order: adults urinate and defecate in the open on public lands and parks in our major towns and they are not punished for these acts. Several intelligence agencies are aware that those who ought to be committed to ensuring that Nigeria survive as a nation, those at the corridors of power, are the very ones who have invested heavily for themselves and their families in foreign countries, especially the Western and Near-Eastern countries. Any slight perturbation of the Nigeria state and they are out in double quick time. Most worrisome for most of us is the fated election year 2011. There is no pretending that a Jonathan presidency would be acceptable to northern Nigeria; likewise, a Babangida presidency would be abhorrent to the southern portion of Nigeria. It seems that in either case there is a looming Hobson's choice: the emergence of rag-tag reactionaries that would be nourished on sheer ethnic fuels. When that happens, then the year 2013 could just be the real milestone in the history of Nigeria begun in 1914 by Lord Luggard.
