subject: Picking Winners Using a System to Handicap Horse Races [print this page] Picking Winners Using a System to Handicap Horse Races
I don't care how you slice it, the way to win money betting on horse races is to pick a winner. While it is true that you have to find one that isn't over bet, you don't make money on losers. You still have to find the right horse.
There are lots of things to think about and look at when it comes to finding the right one. Some people prefer just one angle or spot play while others go through a process of evaluating each runner and comparing each one against the others. There is nothing wrong with either method.
The one thing that all winners have in common, however, is that they are consistent. What does that really mean? Being consistent means doing something the same way over and over again. It means following steps that lead to a conclusion based on information from the past. For instance, knowing that the track favors early speed and the winners are usually within 2 lengths of the leader at the half mile pole is information from the past that helps you to find the winner today.
Information from the past comes in two forms and you have to combine them if you want to win. That is what a good horse racing system does. It takes the past performances of each runner and compares it to the information about all the races run at the track at that distance and class level. In other words, you compare the track model to the horses and figure out which ones fit and which ones will be compromised.
Then you start comparing the runners to each other to evaluate their relative merits. For instance, just knowing that a horse has the right running style to win doesn't mean it is in good form and can win. A horse may be in poor physical condition and unable to win while a horse with a less than desirable running style to fit the track model, may actually win because it is in much better physical condition.
The whole point is that you need a systematic method to make those comparisons. You have to be able to gauge the effect each factor has on the expected output of the runner. Then, you have to rate each horse and finally, once you know how much of an edge each horse has, you have to know how to turn that into odds based on probability.
