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Here we go again. The hype machine is being cranked up. The latest to be placed on board is Michelle Wei. You know the story: She missed the cut by a stroke at Hawaii and set tongues wagging with her fine play.
At times, it is hard to believe she is only 14 and the comparisons to Tiger Woods have already begun. Sure, her demeanor against the men was impeccable and she appears to have a wonderful golfing future.
However, hold the phone, take a step back, and let's look at things a little closer. Last summer she missed the cut by a mile at a Canadian Tour event (essentially Double A golf), a Nationwide event (Triple A), and her only significant victory is the U.S. Women's Amateur Public Links. She was knocked out in the first round at the U.S. Women's Amateur.
Yes, she missed the cut in Hawaii by only a shot, but she had played the course some thirty times in the previous two months.
Waialae Country Club isn't much of a test for the PGA pros. The cut was one under and 75 of 79 who played the weekend finished par or better.
True, Michelle beat several men, yet almost all that she vanquished were recent Nationwide Tour graduates getting their first taste of PGA Tour golf, a couple of aging stars, and a few Japanese Tour veterans.
Playing a full schedule against Michelle, these fourth and fifth echelon players would win the vast majority. In addition, it was just one tournament on a very familiar course. Give her a schedule that puts her at Harbor Town, Bay Hill, or Quail Hollow without benefit of 30 practice rounds and the result could be ugly.
Let's not forget that at each of her men's events, she was there on a sponsor exemption. She still hasn't earned her way into an event. Would she have Monday qualified where competitors play a different course?
Despite her prodigious drives, she still needs to develop a better short game. And as incredible as her potential may seem, a lot of intangibles come into play. Her dream is to play on the PGA TOUR; yet, she has a long way to go to make it on the LPGA. She still needs to learn the game, learn about herself and to learn how to deal with everything associated with being one of the stars in a game; the daily grind, injuries and slumps, the travel, road food every week, and a world where the public and media are quick to dissect a star's game and life after each tournament loss -- just ask Tiger Woods about that.
Golf is full of can't-miss kids that did. Remember John Fought, Bobby Clampett, Gary Hallberg, Sam Randolph, and Manny Zerman?
On the ladies side, remember Vickie Ackerman? She may sound more familiar by her maiden name: Vickie Goetze. She was the AJGA Player of the Year from 1988-1990. She captured the U.S. Women's Amateur title in 1989 and 1992 and the PGA Junior in 1987, 1989 and 1990. She was the low amateur at the U.S. Women's Open in 1989, 1990 and 1992. In 1990 and 1992, she was part of both the U.S. Curtis Cup and the U.S. World Cup teams and won the 1992 NCAA championship. In addition, she was named the 1989, 1991 and 1992 Titleist/Golfweek Amateur Player of the Year, 1992 SEC Player of the Year and 1992 SEC Female Athlete of the Year. She played in 12 professional tournaments as an amateur and made the cut in nine events.
Goetze turned pro in June of 1993. A decade later her best finish is a second place back in 2000 and we're still waiting for a top thirty on the money list.
Any seasoned pro will say that he can lose his game seemingly overnight and one or two great seasons can mean little in the long run. Just ask Scott Verplank or Hal Sutton; both spent the second half of the 1980's and early 1990's in the golf wilderness.
Then there is the burnout factor. Is she being pushed too hard too soon? Will she even be playing golf at 25? Former child prodigy's Tracey Austin and Andrea Jaeger won everything in sight as teenagers but were toast before their 21st birthday.
True, golfers peak much later than tennis players, however, the names mentioned above all peaked quite young and never cut it on the PGA Tour. Will Michele Wei travel the same route? It will be interesting to watch.