subject: Irish Economic Meltdown [print this page] Ireland economys phenomenal growth during 1993 to 2007 (also known as Celtic Tiger) was largely based on the success of the economic model driven by factors such as banks providing cheap credit, low cost base, educated work force etc. With Irelands entry to European Union (EU), many foreign companies established their businesses in the country. In a bid to promote foreign inflows, Irish Government introduced favourable tax structure for international transfer pricing, liberal taxation policy etc. Irish wages grew 5 times faster as compared to that of European Union from 1997 to 2007. New banking model introduced by the government by the name originate to distribute (a process that allows banks to increase their lending base without violating the government norms. The banks in this model make loans and do not hold them, but lend them to other financial institutions as securitised asset package.) increased the liquidity of banks to a record level. By the introduction of subsidies and investment capital, Ireland was able to attract companies like Microsoft, Dell, and Intel to the Irish market. Approximately 14000 jobs were created in Finance, law and accounting fields in 1990s. Export-driven industries, such as software, medical devices, biotechnology and real estate were the key drivers of the Ireland economy before the crisis. Industrial peace, trouble-less relationship with the nations etc, all was resulting in a new positive attitude and economic growth in the country.
The dream run ended n 2008, when country faced economic meltdown due to the various factors such as overspending by Government, loose taxation policy, high dependency on real estate and construction industry, and blanket guarantee provided by all banks. The countrys GDP growth rate started falling drastically since 2008. Irelands GDP growth was 6% in 2007 to 1.6% in 2008, -3% in 2009 and -8% in 2010 so far. Easy regulations framework of the government had led to high lending to the real estate and construction sector. The demand for real estate was on the peak in 2006, when the economy shifted away from manufacturing to services and real estate. After the global recession of 2008-09, domestic demand fell by 16 percent, investment collapsed by over 40 percent, and housing prices plunged 30 percent. Investors started backing out from the real estate and construction projects as they started seeing Ireland as a country with huge lending risk. Due to this, developers and other related firms in real estate industry began to fall behind on their loan repayments and started losing money which led to record bank losses. The fall in the tax rich activities such as demand for housing and real estate caused major drop in tax revenue.
As the economy of Ireland was gaining momentum by 2007, so did the size of government expenditure. Even after the downfall in 2008, Government didnt stop spending for three years. Spending by the Government rose from 27bn in 1998 to 76bn in 2008. The government of Ireland borrows approximately 2.6 billion on monthly basis to fund its day to day expenses. Governments debt levels have also increased enormously from 24.8% of GDP in 2007 to 44.1% in 2008 and 64.5% in 2009. If the same trend continues, soon the countrys borrowings will be over 100% of GDP.
During the good times, when the countrys fiscal condition was strong, Irish banks provided cheap credit to people who in some cases couldn't pay it back. Irish banks borrowed huge amount of money from the money markets, and in return loaned this money to investors. After the job loss and monetary losses, Irish investors couldnt pay back the money borrowed from the bank, and banks couldnt repay the investors on the money markets. Since Investors have lost the confidence in the economy and consider Ireland as a risky destination to invest, now they charge almost twice of the previous lending rates.
Major banks in the country became insolvent and unable to lend. Collapse in the tax revenues lead to fiscal deficit of 11.7% of the GDP for 2009. The composition of taxes shifted from the stable sources such as income tax, excise duties etc. to cyclic taxes such as corporation tax, stamp duties, service tax etc. Cyclic taxes were increased from 8% in 1980s to 30% in 2006. The cyclic taxes are based on transactions. The number of transaction fell drastically during the crisis and tax revenue fell by almost 14 per cent, with fall in cyclically sensitive taxes, at 36 per cent. Had Ireland tax structure was less cyclic based, the loss in revenue would have been much lower.
The crisis led to about 65,000 people leaving Ireland in 2009, and it is estimated that the number may increase to 120,000 in 2010. The rate of unemployment reached 13.7 %, a 16-year high in June, 2010 and is expected to reach 18.5% by 2011. Countrys stock exchange which was flourishing at 10,000 points in 2007 came to 1,987 points in 2009, a 14-year low. Total exports of goods and services from Ireland in 2009 fell by 1% to 154bn.
The European Union has agreed to loan approximately $89.4 billion to Ireland to help it come out of its massive crisis. The government is now taking the majority control of the affected banks like Allied Irish Banks and Anglo Irish Bank Corp. The EU/IMF has put strict conditions on its loans and may require Ireland to consider tax increases and spending cuts. As a result of these measures, situation has improved in Ireland. Recently Ireland recorded the second largest trade surplus in EU countries in last six months (January June 2010) by exporting 9,327m to the US and imported just 4,086m. Ireland is only surpassed by Germany in the EU nations. It is the time for the people of Ireland to wake up and force the Government to bail out the corrupt banking institutions, start cutting their public expenditure budget and to strategise the future effectively.
