subject: The Connection Between Interest Rates and Jobs - Whether We Like it Or Not Rates Drive Jobs [print this page] The Connection Between Interest Rates and Jobs - Whether We Like it Or Not Rates Drive Jobs
Many businesses are in a constant cash-flow-constrained condition. Normally, these businesses rely on lines of credit from their bank to fund their a portion of (and sometimes much of) their cash flow requirements between payments from customers. Recently, this tie has been constrained because banks have been so damaged by the financial crisis and recession that they withdrew lines of credit or reduced them drastically causing much of the cry in the news about the lack of small business credit. Because of this the tie has been a bit more vague and confused than usual. However, banks are making rapid progress correcting their balance sheet issues. At the same time, the federal government is trotting out billions of support for the small business lending issues. This will lead to a gradual and then rapid loosening of credit for business later in the year. Combine this loosening of credit with robust business profits piling up this year and business activity and hiring will pick up in late 2011.
However, at the moment we are faced with an environment where, though rates are favorable for business lending, capital availability is weak. This is restraining private sector hiring significantly. Add to this the malaise in Europe and weakness increases even more.
So, why do job hunters care?
Well, the generally accepted economic view is that rates will pick up in the future. The future, because of global issues, has moved from late 2010 to early 2011 to late 2011 and possibly early 2012. Along with rates picking up, inflationary pressure is a concern as well. However, inflation is typically stoked mainly by labor pressures and in a global economy where commodity pressures are likely to remain muted at least for the next 24 months, there is little likelihood of a change here. Because of this, the smart job hunter needs to find a secure home and get settled before the end of this window if possible.
Secondly, smart consumers are going to focus on the fact that increasing rates could lead to increasing job instability and plan accordingly. This implies that with the recession's weakening effects, slowly improving job conditions, improving business activity trends, the stage is set for a significant hiring rebound late in 2010 and early 2011. Consumers need to make hay during this period. Find good jobs. Work out secondary job plans or take second jobs. Develop and pack away savings. 2012 and 2013 could be tough if rates rise rapidly causing employers to keep only their most profitable employees and scale back their cash-flow-focused financing.
