subject: Oscillation of the second quarter, high probability of copper - heat pumps, solar energy, copper - heat pump industry [print this page] Oscillation of the second quarter, high probability of copper - heat pumps, solar energy, copper - heat pump industry
After entering in April, as the global economic recovery continues to expand the scope of the policy concerns and market decreases, the international crude oil prices break 85 dollars / barrel, LME copper is pointing its sword 8000 U.S. dollars / ton. The world's major industrial prices back to the 2008 peak level.
To the good economic data, policy worries eased
OECD's latest report, in January OECD Composite Leading Indicators show the world the first 5 months continuous expansion of economic development level of optimism is more intense than the previous month, continued strong economic recovery. Regardless of G7 countries, or as a representative of emerging markets, "gold brick" of the four countries, leading indicators show long-term trend in the level above. All countries show that industrial production had bottomed out and worth looking forward to the strong economic recovery.
U.S. Labor Department data showed the U.S. March non-farm employment increased by 16.2 million people to 3 years, the fastest growth, and promote the recovery of market optimism on the job. March of the manufacturing and services PMI also showed the trend of economic recovery and further established. April 15, announced in March the U.S. manufacturing capacity utilization was 70.0%, higher than in February rose 0.6%; in March industrial output up 0.1%, 0.7% slightly lower than expected, the pace of economic recovery is still slow . April 16 U.S. Department of Commerce announced in March housing starts was 626,000 years (estimated at 610,000), and continued the upward trend before; in March building permits annual rate of 685,000 (estimated at 630 000 ), growth of up to 7.5%.
4 14 , FED Chairman Ben Bernanke testimony before Congress confirmed the U.S. economy is still recovering at a moderate growth rate, but the economy is facing a weak construction spending, high unemployment situation, but data also show that inflation remains restrained, FED had "a long period of time to maintain exceptionally low interest rates", which the U.S. dollar weighed on the other hand, explain the policy objectives on the FED continues to further economic recovery, the two support all of the copper composition.
4 15, National Bureau of Statistics released the first quarter, GDP grew 11.9%, higher than the expected 11.5%, CPI up 2.2% over the same period, while the March CPI rose 2.4%, 2.6% lower than expected, chain fell 0.7%. On the same day, the PBC released data show that in March new RMB loans 510.7 billion yuan, far below market expectations of 750 billion yuan, China's macro-control policy to gradually show the power, the intensity of short-term tightening of liquidity can be further strengthened.
The advent of the traditional peak season, China's copper consumption-than-expected performance
According to General Administration of Customs on April 12 announced preliminary data of copper imports, in March of copper and copper products China imports 456,240 tons, from last month's 322,282 tons, growth of 41.57%; import copper 360,000 tons, the high last month of 280,000 tons, growth of 28.57%, far exceeding market expectations.
Domestic consumption of refined copper in the main, the output of household appliances are a significant jump in the first quarter, more than 20% of color TV sets, washing machines and freezers in the year increase of more than 40%, far exceeding last year; the most important Electric Areas of product output growth has also changed considerably.
Colored according to a recent Shanghai survey network, the domestic copper foil with a start rate of 64.8% of the overall business, the chain in February rose 10%, starts rebounded in which copper industry is strong demand, orders have been connected to the years of basic capacity utilization rate of 97.3%, a fine full production status. The current board with the industry rate gradually rose to start the second half of last year's average level, research firm said 4? May copper with the production season is expected to start in May rate rise is expected to continue. Copper foil business inventories of raw materials accounted for 42.8% on the amount of copper, the chain in February increased by 10.3%, raw material inventories have increased, mainly because at present the majority of orders entered into in good company, part of the relatively abundant capital of enterprises to increase orders inventory.
Greece, initially for the debt crisis, but the Goldman Sachs global outbreak Financial Risk factors still exist
4 11, euro-zone finance ministers approved a 30 billion euros of Greek aid mechanism, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the first year are also expected to provide at least 10 billion euros for the Greek aid. Euro 30 billion euros of Greek approved aid mechanism for the euro zone's economic recovery was finally a ray of hope, but on April 16 came out of Goldman Sachs fraud seriously undermined the confidence lie in the market.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently charged in the design and Goldman Sachs Sell And subprime mortgage-related collateralized debt obligations (CDO) product of fraud. According to SEC, said Goldman Sachs failed to disclose important information about CDO, such securities, the value depends on the subprime mortgage-backed securities performance; Goldman has not disclosed a large hedge fund portfolio selection process by the role, and this fact of CDO hedge funds short. Day of Goldman Sachs fell 13% to 160.70 U.S. dollars, as the largest single-day decline ever, dragging & P 500 index fell 1.61%, market risk appetite declined, investors turned to hedge U.S. dollar, LME copper fell more than 2% pressure . However, this event on the international copper market impact should be limited to short-term, copper prices continued to slump unlikely.
Aftermarket Forecast At high copper prices has now, although more limited room for further gains, but sustained improvement in global economic fundamentals and the traditional peak season of the real consumer demand will support copper prices remain high oscillation. The instability of the global financial system is short-term disturbance factors may limit the kinetic energy of the main aspects of copper up, but really the major factor in suppression of copper is still down from the U.S. loose monetary policy tightening than-expected pace. Recent three-month LME copper price fluctuation range for the 7600-8100 main U.S. dollars / ton.
