subject: Commercial Insight: Cytotoxic Therapies - Drug Launches In Rare Indications To Offset The Decline In [print this page] Introduction Introduction
Antihormonal cancer therapies are a class of drugs used predominantly in the treatment of breast cancer and prostate cancer. The high incidence of these tumor types translates into a significant commercial potential for drug developers. Collectively, the antihormonal therapy cancer brands generated sales of about $7.0 billion in the seven major pharmaceutical markets in 2009.
Scope
*In-depth analysis of the current and future antihormonal therapies market across the US, 5EU and Japan, plus a rest of world snapshot
*Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts for brands and generics from 2009 to 2019
*Assessment of the leading cancer brands and drug classes to identify key success factors within this sector
*Evaluation of the strategies of leading players in the antihormonals market
Highlights
The antihormonals market was worth $7.0 billion in 2009 across the seven major pharmaceutical markets. Datamonitor forecasts the antihormonals market will shrink marginally in the forecast period 20092019, at a CAGR of negative 0.7%.
In 2019 the top three brands in terms of forecast sales will be Arimidex, Lupron (leuprolide; Takeda/Abbott) and Casodex (bicalutamide; AstraZeneca). Despite losing around 54% of its current sales value to generic competitors, Arimidex will retain its market leading position.
In a mature market, the importance of product lifecycle management is high. AstraZeneca was the key player in the market in 2009, with an antihormonals portfolio valued at over $3.2 billion. With successful lifecycle management and a considerable investment in marketing activities, AstraZeneca has built a strong brand presence for its products.
Reasons to Purchase
*Quantify the performance of each of the marketed antihormonal therapy cancer brands in the seven major markets over the period 2009 to 2019
*Acquire a detailed account of antihormonal therapy cancer brand dynamics and the events that drive and limit their market growth
*Benchmark antihormonal therapy cancer brands against their generics and rest of class and align their 7MM performance with a rest of world snapshot
Table of Contents :
OVERVIEW 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
About Datamonitor healthcare 2
About the Oncology pharmaceutical analysis team 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Strategic scoping and focus 3
Datamonitor insight into the antihormonal cancer therapies market 3
Threat 1: Pharma's transition towards specialist secondary care indications may further competition in the oncology market 20
Threat 2: the cost of drug development continues to rise 20
Threat 3: ongoing cost-containment measures 20
US 21
Current and future market assessment 21
The US antihormonals market will suffer the greatest impact of generic sales erosion 21
Opportunities and threats 25
Opportunity 1: the US's large population and high healthcare expenditure will continue to offer commercial opportunities for drug developers 25
Opportunity 2: healthcare reform will boost the number of insured in the US 25
Opportunity 3: closure of the Medicare Part D coverage gap is good news for branded Pharma 26
Threat 1: growing regulatory pressures increase costs and decrease market penetration for Pharma 26
Threat 2: patent expiries and the resulting generic competition will erode branded sales revenues 27
Threat 3: the US health reform law will intensify cost-containment pressures 27
Japan 28
Current and future market assessment 28
The antihormonals market in Japan is forecast to grow over the forecast period 28
Opportunities and threats 32
Opportunity 1: the aging population represents a large and growing patient base 32
Opportunity 2: generic sales erosion remains low in Japan 32
Opportunity 3: decrease in lag times for launch of new drugs could accelerate new launches 33
Threat 1: government-enforced biennial cuts continue to have a negative effect on market growth 33
Threat 2: healthcare proposal to change current pricing system will be of limited benefit to Japanese Pharma 34
Threat 3: encouraging decrease in lag times for launch of new drugs 34
Five major European markets (5EU) 36
Current and future market assessment 36
The antihormonals therapies market in the five European countries will show marginal growth 36
The antihormonal therapies market will grow from $2.6 billion in 2009 to $2.7 billion in 2019 in the five major European markets 38
Opportunities and threats 40
Opportunity 1: EU Cancer Task Force will improve the availability of information while generating funds for research 41
Opportunity 2: reorganization of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) expected to streamline EU regulatory process 41
Threat 1: new European drug price reductions are likely to affect pharma industry growth 41
Threat 2: higher generic uptake in less mature EU markets will impact branded sales revenues 42
Threat 3: EC inquiry into delays in generics market entry will have wide-ranging ramifications for the branded and generics industry 43
Threat 4: Spain's price cuts and reference groups are driving drug prices down 44
Threat 5: new low reimbursement rate created in France signals the growing pressure for cost-containment 44
Threat 6: NICE will remain a significant hurdle to commercialization of cancer drugs in the UK, despite relaxation of its cost-effectiveness criteria 45
Threat 7: Germany's new cost-effectiveness analysis system could add to the downward pressure on drug prices 46
Threat 8: additional cuts to the price of oncology drugs in Italy are impending under its pay-for-performance scheme 47
France 48
Current and future market assessment 48
The antihormonal therapies market in France will peak at around $654m in 2010. 48
Germany 51
Current and future market assessment 51
The antihormonals therapies market will grow from $727m in 2009 to $835m in 2019 in Germany 51
Italy 55
Current and future market assessment 55
The antihormonal therapies market will grow from $484m in 2009 to $512m in 2019 in Italy 55
Spain 58
Current and future market assessment 58
The antihormonals market in Spain will marginally shrink from $418m in 2009 to $396m in 2019 in Spain 58
UK 61
Current and future market assessment 61
The antihormonal therapies market will grow from $333m in 2009 to $348m in 2019 in the UK 61
Rest of the world snapshot 65
Current market assessment 65
Rest of the world sales represent 18% of the global antihormonals market 65
Opportunities and threats 66
Opportunity 1: incidence of cancer is forecast to increase in the BRIC countries 66
