subject: Forecast Insight: Hepatitis B - Baraclude And Viread Set To Thrive In The Face Of Limited Competitio [print this page] Introduction Introduction
In 2009, hepatitis B sales across the seven major markets totalled $954m, demonstrating a CAGR of 37.5% between 2005 and 2009. Datamonitor expects the market to grow to $1.2 billion by 2014. However, from 2015 to 2019, sales across the seven major markets will decline due to patent expiries of key drugs such as Baraclude and Viread, and reach approximately $893m by 2019.
Scope
*Analysis of the current hepatitis B market dynamics across the US, 5EU, Japan and Turkey, with a snapshot of the Rest of World countries
*Thorough assessment of key marketed products for hepatitis B therapy
*Detailed ten-year sales forecasts for marketed hepatitis B drugs in each of the seven major markets and Turkey
*Review of opinions of key hepatitis B opinion leaders on future market developments
Highlights
In 2009, small molecule antivirals dominated the hepatitis B market with sales of $954m. In comparison, sales of interferon products were low, accounting for only 3% of total hepatitis B sales in 2009. This low market share can be attributed to the high cost of interferon products, their restricted use and inconvenient mode of administration.
Market growth until 2014 will be driven by the strong uptake of newer hepatitis B antivirals such as Bristol-Myers Squibb's Baraclude (entecavir) and Gilead's Viread (tenofovir). Older products such as Gilead's Hepsera (adefovir) and GlaxoSmithKline's Zeffix (lamivudine) will be used less frequently owing to the increased risk of resistance.
In 2009, Baraclude was the best selling brand in terms of value in Turkey; however Zeffix dominated in terms of volume. The popularity of Zeffix can be explained by the stringent reimbursement policy in Turkey, which restricts the use of more expensive drugs such as the pegylated interferons, Baraclude and Viread to specific populations.
Reasons to Purchase
*Understand the changing market dynamics of hepatitis B drugs and success factors for leading brands.
*Assess the impact of events such as patent expiries on the overall hepatitis B market.
*Obtain full, country, class and product-specific forecasts of currently marketed drugs from 2009 to 2019 for all seven major markets and Turkey.
Table of Contents :
Overview 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
About Datamonitor healthcare 2
About the Infectious Diseases pharmaceutical analysis team 2
Executive Summary 2
Strategic scoping and focus 2
Datamonitor insight into the Hepatitis B market 2
Related reports 4
Upcoming related reports 4
Table of Contents 5
Table of figures 6
Table of tables 7
Market definition and overview 8
Market definition for this report 8
Countries and regions included in this report 8
Seven major market assessment 9
Current and future market overview 9
Small molecule antivirals will continue to dominate sales 10
Pegylated interferon sales to remain steady over the forecast period 12
Genericization will lead to an overall decline in sales across the seven major markets 14
Impact of vaccination will reduce hepatitis B incidence but immigration will keep prevalence rates stable across the seven major markets 15
US healthcare reform will increase the number of patients accessing therapy 17
EU countries are increasingly looking to cut healthcare spending 18
Japan implements biennial price cuts to contain costs 19
Comparison with previous forecast 19
Viread achieves higher peak sales, reflecting the drug's fast uptake 21
Combination therapy is unlikely to be used in first-line therapy in the near future 21
Tyzeka/Sebivo sales forecast was dampened due to poor uptake across the US and five major European markets 23
Clevudine has been excluded from the 2010 forecasts 23
Pegasys uptake has been slower than anticipated owing to the success of Baraclude and Viread 24
