subject: Horse Race Results With an Easy System to Pick More Winners [print this page] Horse Race Results With an Easy System to Pick More Winners
If you want good horse race results, you need a systematic way to handicap the races. Picking winners isn't rocket science, but it does require some effort. Smart horse players don't work for many hours scouring over programs trying to eke out a profit. That just doesn't work because of job burnout. Any one who has ever tried that route knows you can only do it so long before you can't think straight.
There is another way to pick winners and it is by working smart. Yes an easy horse racing system is still work, but if you work smart, you'll be able to keep using it day after day, week after week, for months or even years. It all starts with the simple truth that good horses don't make money but good bets do.
You have to stop trying to find a lot of winners and start looking for those good bets. It usually involves beating a favorite since that is where most of the money is and if the crowd is going to make a mistake, that is usually their biggest mistake.
Some people think that because the favorites win almost a third of the time and the crowd picks them, then the crowd is pretty sharp. Wrong. The crowd picks them and bets them down so they are totally unprofitable and they still only win one third of the time and lose twice as often. Think of that for a moment. The crowd is twice as likely to be wrong as they are to be right and they give you a low priced horse in the bargain.
When the favorite doesn't win, which horses do win? The second and third favorite, combined, win as often as the favorite and yet, they pay more, sometimes twice as much. The favorite, or chalk, may go off at even money while the third favorite may be at 3-1 or even 4-1. Yet the second and third favorite are very likely to win. The winner of the race is in the top three betting choices about 70% of the time.
If the favorite wins a little better than 30%, then that means the other two win almost 40% of the time. They pay decent, too. So the easy system I talked about is to find a favorite that has never done what is being asked of it. These types are usually over bet for the actual probability of winning. Once you locate this false favorite, look closely at the next two choices and chose a wager from those two. You will have a good chance of winning and the odds will be much better.
