subject: NPC economy of macroeconomic policy should report to retreating - macroeconomic and economic policy - construction machinery industry [print this page] NPC economy of macroeconomic policy should report to retreating - macroeconomic and economic policy - construction machinery industry
Renmin University of China Institute of Economic Research recently released report theme, "China's Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast (2009-2010)??? Out of the 'dilemma' of China's macro economy."
Next year's macro-economic "dilemma"
Report that China's current macro-than-expected rebound in China's macro-economic "policy irritant reaction phase" to "market demand rebound phase" of the transitional period, but rebounded with the "policy-led", and "structure imbalance, "" dynamic instability "," lack of growth factor interaction "and" the volatility of the overall development, "and so on, these characteristics determine to a large extent the current macroeconomic China may face the following in-depth problems.
May show the "double-W wheeled" adjustment mode
Inherent inertia in the economy, policy incentives and the world economy continued to rebound under the action of multiple factors, China's macroeconomic growth in 2010 continued the trend, but the quarterly growth trend showed a slight drop in quarter by quarter, and in 2009 the contrary, China's macroeconomic growth in the short term will show up "inverted V" type change.
However, if we cycle perspective, China's macroeconomic adjustment is likely to show a "W two-wheeled" mode. Year from GDP growth, China is in the short term macroeconomic "V" type, but the medium is rendered as "W" type. China's macro-economic in 2010 although not the "second bottom" as well. However, the cumulative effect of internal contradictions, remains strong in the 2011-2012 medium-term downward force. Chain growth from the point of view, China's macroeconomic in 2008-2010 will be presented "W" pattern wheeled, endogenous, sustained acceleration forces have not formed, there is strong fluctuations in the output gap trend.
Macroeconomic into the "dilemma" situation
So-called "dilemma" situation is that in 2010 China's macroeconomic growth dynamic mechanism will be converted into a critical stage, the conflict has two aspects: on the one hand, the incentives for continued or further amplification is possible short-term rapid recovery and economic overheating, but may make policy-led recovery of the market reaction forces to suppress the cultivation of future investment-driven growth model of the internal contradictions increasingly intensified structural deterioration, excess capacity will be further intensified, leading to macroeconomic unsustainable in the medium term, even in the medium term, "second bottom"; the other hand, simply take out policies to make the policy of stimulating demand for a sharp decline, just start partial, not yet market forces form a self-loop mechanism of mortality, appear in the short term macro-economic "second bottom."
Lead to this situation because the core of China's macroeconomic and structural rigidity inherent deep-seated contradictions in health: first, the current decentralized system of the central and local state-owned economy, profit distribution system and the functional departments power standard to endogenous macroeconomic China's "thirst for investment" and "investment expansion tendency," which often led to "excessive relief" problem, more importantly, it will use the world economic crisis and external shocks to hide the problem, further use of investment in the Chinese macro-economic contradictions inherent in the delay is magnified. Therefore, the problems are resolved, including the premise, China's macroeconomic policy choice, only choice in the near future "second bottom," appeared in the medium term, or "second bottom." Second, the current macro-economic structural rigidity and fragility of the social structure of macro-control on one hand is a single alternative method, the other, so that a single choice but to rely heavily on the government, so we expect the balance of the situation is difficult appears.
