subject: Wu Jinglian: China's economy over the lack of emphasis on short-term policy continuity - Refractory Industry [print this page] Wu Jinglian: China's economy over the lack of emphasis on short-term policy continuity - Refractory Industry
GDP data for the enthusiasm of economists may never short on politicians.
Last weekend in China Europe International Business School 15th Anniversary activities, Joseph Stiglitz and Michael Spencer, with two Nobel economists, Wu Jinglian, Li Daokui , Yu Yongding and other domestic leading scholars gathered on the post-crisis era of global economic re-balancing of such issues.
These famous scholars GDP figures do not cold, the State Council Development Research Center, Wu Jinglian more bluntly: "I hope the Chinese GDP growth can be CAREFUL IN THE SUMMER, no longer on the."
Xiaonian said the GDP can not read
Said that at present too much emphasis on the analysis of short-term macroeconomic policies, but these short-term policy is unsustainable, macroeconomic policies should address the economic development in the final analysis, the long-term problem. Mr. Wu said that the short term, demand growth is entirely by bank loans and investment-led government, which was not sustainable. In his view, China must be a way to revitalize the industry, changes in economic growth mode, low value-added industrial upgrading for high value-added industries, R & D and marketing services in the supply chain both before and after the end of high value-added part of the make efforts to achieve industrial upgrading and revitalization.
Always claimed the Chinese economy will bottom in the middle of next year economist Xiaonian second or even "the official GDP data, I have not read," he said, the first three quarters of GDP growth up 7.7%, but Looking around the country, less than 7.7% only three provinces, 18 provinces and cities at the same time double-digit GDP growth, the number of such lack of reasonable explanation.
"Burn" will have disastrous consequences
"Decision-makers determined to pull in the short term GDP, but this short-term economic boost will bring tremendous cost," said Xu Xiaonian. He predicted, with the ultra-loose monetary policy, "not sustained" and "not sustainable", massive "burn" will have disastrous consequences for the banking system, banking system after 2035 will probably face a few trillion The bad debt problem, because there is no pre-launched the project after careful feasibility studies, or lack of income will result in funds not recovered.
And overseas economists GDP figures are also many sharp point. Columbia University professor and 2001 Nobel laureate in economics, Stiglitz said in an exclusive interview, "GDP is not a good measure of market activity, or social welfare indicators of progress, it has some misleading." He stressed that only when there are different sources of data for mutual authentication when a more reliable, such as trade data for imports and exports at the same time there are two aspects should therefore be considered relatively more reliable, he pointed out that among the different sources to find relevant regularity of data, while statistics from the independent research institutions to protect data are often not subject to outside interference.
Stiglitz that "the economic crisis is not over," the future may enter a very long period of low growth, it is because the U.S. labor market is very weak at present, almost one-sixth of the population still can not find a full-time work, he said that economic growth is because of the current policy of stimulation, but once the policy effects of the withdrawal, the economy will be trouble.
"Structural adjustment efforts in China than the U.S."
Scholars in public view, the global economy experienced a crisis has been very difficult to go back to the past, compared to GDP growth in the number, either overseas or in China, the economic restructuring, the global economy "rebalancing" that is more important proposition. And whether the importance degree of economic adjustment, or policy support, the experts pointed out that between China and the United States, significant gaps.
Xiaonian on the evaluation of the U.S. economy right now?? "The U.S. economy is basically in the end, but the restructuring has not yet in place." In contrast, although China appears more "comfortable", but the Chinese economy undergoing structural adjustment have not already been the Government's own "delayed return", hit the "morphine", but "morphine," the efficacy can not last forever .
