subject: Horse Race Handicapping Tips for Separating Pace From Speed [print this page] Horse Race Handicapping Tips for Separating Pace From Speed
Sometimes it is hard to know where pace begins and speed ends or vice versa. The whole subject of pace and speed is complicated because one affects the other and neither factor can stand alone. ON the other hand, because you have to compare the figures of all runners and have an idea of the scenario of the race, a lot of it is guesswork. The younger a horse is, the more difficult that guesswork becomes except when they are maidens.
If that doesn't sound even more confusing, I don't know what is. The problem is that horses do have their own style of running. The two year olds usually run as fast as they can and as far as they can. So looking at early speed and trying to figure how that will affect the outcome is pretty straightforward with the juveniles.
Many trainers will just let a maiden horse run its race and hope that it has enough raw talent to win. Winning a race or two and setting fast fractions can build confidence in a young runner and that is very important, in fact, confidence and class are almost synonymous. Once a horse has run a few races, however, it is time for more intense schooling to begin and this is when you can no longer depend upon the same old thing.
The trainer may decide that his or her horse needs to learn to rate better and to switch leads in the stretch. That trainer may instruct the jockey to work on that with the horse so the rider holds it back as well as he or she can at the beginning of the race and tries to position it for an off the pace trip. You'll often hear a groan go up from the crowd and some will complain that the jockey is holding the horse back.
That is true, but he or she isn't doing that to throw the race. It is part of the horse's schooling so it can become a multi-dimensional runner, capable of rating from off the pace or setting the pace, depending upon the running styles and ability of the competition. Some horses are more tractable and handle this conditioning better than others.
The important thing for you the handicapper to understand is that as horses mature you can't always depend on one running style. That makes pace less reliable as a factor. In a race where a horse always breaks to the front, the trainer may be sick and tired of watching it wilt in the stretch and the jockey may have instructions to strangle it back in this race to try to teach it a lesson.
That will, of course, have a direct result on the runner's speed rating which leads us to the point that a speed rating at its favorite running style and pace may not be the same when it is being schooled. They won't try the schooling trick with an older horse, but look for younger horses with running styles that haven't been working and expect that sooner or later the trainer will try a change of pace.
