subject: Screen of the Week 06/15/2010: New Top 5 Sectors [print this page] Screen of the Week 06/15/2010: New Top 5 Sectors
It's that time again. Every few months, I like running this screen to find the new Top Sectors. And since roughly half of a stock's price move can be directly attributed to its group, it is important to stay on top of this. By definition, a strong Sector or strong Industry will have more of its companies moving higher than a weak Sector or weak Industry. If the majority of stocks are going down in an industry, it can't be a strong industry. If more stocks are going up, it is a strong industry.
What's interesting is that I've done some testing in the past and found that just getting into an average stock in a strong group will often outperform the best stocks in a troubled group. This doesn't mean you can just pick anything and make money. Far from it. But it illustrates how powerful the underlying group is to the success of your stock picking.
There are several ways you can define the best Sectors or Industries. Today, I'm combining my two favorite ways:
1) I'm ranking the sectors based on the average Zacks Rank.
2) I'm ranking the sectors based on the percentage of stocks trading within 10% of their 52 week highs.
This is the best of two great ways to look at sectors.
Groups with the best Zacks Ranks outperform those with worse Zacks Ranks. And groups with a higher percentage of stocks trading at or near their 52 week highs show something positive is happening to the entire group. First, I numerically rank the sectors with the best Zacks Rank. Then I do the same for the sectors with the highest percentage of new highs. Then I add the scores together from each method to get a composite. And then lastly, I'll re-sort the total score from lowest to highest to give me the best sectors.
This way I'm getting the best Zacks Ranked groups (those with the highest upward earnings estimate revisions) as well as the groups with the best responsiveness as evidenced by their price performance.
And the top five Sectors based on this scoring method are:
1) Conglomerates
2nd for the Zacks Rank & 4th for the group highs = 6 (best score)
2) Consumer Discretionary
3rd for the Zacks Rank & 8th for the group highs = 11 (second best)
3) Retail-Wholesale
5th for the Zacks Rank and 6th for the group highs = 11 (tied for 2nd)
4) Auto-Tires-Trucks
1st for the Zacks Rank and 12th for the group highs = 13 (third best)
5) Transportation
8th for the Zacks Rank and 5th for the group highs = 13 (tied for 3rd)
Here are 5 stocks; one from each of the top 5 Sectors (for Tuesday, 6/15/10):
CSL - Carlisle Companies Inc. -- Conglomerates
TPX - Tempur-Pedic Int'l Inc. -- Consumer Discretionary
MELI - MercadoLibre, Inc. -- Retail-Wholesale
TEN - Tenneco Inc. -- Autos-Tires-Trucks
HUBG - Hub Group, Inc. -- Transportation
All of these stocks are in the top Sectors as we've defined them, and they are all on the move.
Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material.
