subject: Problem Handicapping Reveals Good Priced Winners in Horse Race Betting [print this page] Problem Handicapping Reveals Good Priced Winners in Horse Race Betting
Do you like cashing big tickets at the horse races? How about hitting a nice long shot that makes your day, is that what you like? If you've had that experience the reason is probably that you bet on a horse that the crowd dismissed because they thought there was a problem that the trainer, horse, or jockey couldn't overcome.
When you think about it, the best paying horses are the ones that seem to have an obstacle to winning. If you look at any racing program on a typical day you've find lots of runners who have something they must deal with in order to win. On a day when the track is off, muddy, sloppy, wet, etc., that becomes one of the obstacles, but all the horses have the same problem.
On the other hand, you may find that one or two horses share the same problem in a race. An example would be two horses carrying more weight than the other horses. While a lot of people don't think weight makes a difference in a race, let me assure it often does, especially when you consider that some races are won by the narrowest of margins. If a horse wins or loses by a nose but is carrying five pounds more weight than the horse beside it, how do you think the weight may have changed the result?
But in many instances, you'll find a runner with a singular obstacle that it must overcome. A horse that is coming back after a layoff is one example. A horse whose regular jockey isn't available may be another. Don't forget horses with physical problems, such as wearing front wraps for the first time. The big question for you, the horse player who wants to make money betting on horses, is how do you figure out which problems can be solved?
The crowd may see a horse coming back from a layoff and figure it needs more races. The trainer may be marginally successful bringing them back in one or two races, so the question remains, will this one be ready? That drives the price up on the runner, but what does it do for you? If you go to the paddock and look it over, you may find out it is in good shape, no extra weight and it seems fit and on its toes. Then you may hit a nice longshot.
The point I am making is that in order to find good bets you must do more than the crowd. Either keep notes about trainers and their success, or look into things more closely. That is how you can assess how well a problem is being dealt with and whether or not one man's problem is your payday. Learn to look for problems and see them as money making possibilities.
