subject: Three quarterly paper industry: Road is not clear also clear - Paper, Paper - Paper Industry [print this page] Three quarterly paper industry: Road is not clear also clear - Paper, Paper - Paper Industry
Currently Paper Profit at its best level, but the possibility of future declines relatively large
Paper corporate earnings in the third quarter, sales increased substantially, prices strengthened, and export the extraordinary play, based on earnings growth will be determined. But we think that three quarters of papermaking enterprises, especially high-grade paper pulp and paper-based enterprises such as Sun Paper decoupling such high profits in the history of the future size of the production run, weakening exports and the impact of rising costs, this Class of profitability may decline.
In profit compared to the high point of the paper industry, we believe that future investment opportunities are more likely to appear in the pulp industry, pulp prices are still rising in the fourth quarter is expected to continue. Based on the following three reasons: domestic reserves Wood pulp Inadequate; pulp and paper demand a high premium levels and warmer lead Europe and the United States mill complex production; In addition, the limited domestic supply of the chemical pulp production process of making high-end production, the chemical pulp imports will not drop. Therefore, the future of pulp wood pulp price increase channel profitability will occur rapidly upward.
Paper industry profits in the third quarter, the best level, the probability of future decline is a big event. From 5 months, high-grade paper products, particularly in pulp production Coated Paper And white Cardboard Prices continued to rise, the cumulative increase has reached more than 1,000 yuan, the high-end paper products manufacturer tons of paper profits from less than 200 yuan to 600 yuan upgrade, return to profitability before the high point. In addition, the company also reflects the current level of corporate stock at a lower level of active downstream demand. Industry data from the 1-8 month observation, the paper industry first 8 months Sell Income of 276.3 billion yuan, down 14% year on year, mainly due to sharp drop in paper prices over the previous year, profit dropped 20 percent, a decline compared with May quarter. It is noteworthy that the overall industry profits of 5-8 compared to the previous month had been restored to normal levels, the level of the enterprise gross margin and net profit margin of an example 5-August has been restored to 14% gross margin, net profit margin of 6% , which has returned to the historical average; paper industry ROE was 13% 5-8 months, returned to the historical average, which makes us believe that the future corporate earnings momentum for further growth failure may occur. In addition, paper costs account for 60 to 70% of the cost price of wood pulp production in the context of sustainable paper products are also expected to keep rising, which will compress paper profitable enterprise space. Therefore, we expect the decline in corporate profits next paper is more likely.
The contrary, integrated pulp and paper companies to uplink channel in pulp prices to maintain their level of profitability is not eroded by rising costs, in addition, as Yueyang Paper pulp accounting for just over 100% since some species have take-away plasma, so pulp price up in earnings growth could accelerate.
Strategy, we propose that high corporate profits, investors reduced holdings of separated pulp and paper enterprises, while the holdings of integrated pulp and paper companies such as Yueyang Paper and Chenming Paper. We believe that separating pulp and paper enterprise profits despite three quarters of substantial growth, and generally exceeded expectations, but because of the lack of such enterprises in terms of hedging costs, pulp price increases will be swallowed by corporate profits, while paper prices is expected to launch in the production and export the context of the decline is difficult to cover cost pressures continue to rise.
Center Daily News may be a more beautiful-than-expected performance of a company or a four.
Sun Paper: expected third-quarter profit of 0.31 yuan per share, better performance is due to raise the price of paper a significant reduction in the third quarter.
Jin Jia Shares: expected third-quarter earnings per share 0.14 yuan, mainly from better performance capacity utilization improved.
China and Thailand stock: expected quarterly earnings per share 0.23 yuan Third, the market forecast of 0.2 dollars, is expected to come mainly from Newsprint Sales rebound, and Chemical industry Better business profits.
Cheng Lin shares: expected profit of 0.15 yuan per share, three quarterly, is widely expected to 0.08 yuan, over the third quarter is expected to come from corporate orders.
