subject: NFL Week 8: Texas-Size Problems in Big-D [print this page] NFL Week 8: Texas-Size Problems in Big-D NFL Week 8: Texas-Size Problems in Big-D
Right until the very end of this year's NFL playoffs when the Lombardi Trophy is handed out to the winner of Super Bowl XLV, Jerry Jones and the fans of the Dallas Cowboys will be in attendance.
The players, on the other hand, will likely be fishing down in the Gulf or teeing off at one of several fine courses in the Caribbean.
Dallas' home record fell to 0-3 straight-up and against the spread (SU/ATS) Monday, but the most punishing blow of the season was dealt when QB Tony Romo (clavicle) became the fifth QB this season that the New York Giants have put down for the count.
Our sportsbook knew that Romo would be unavailable for Week 8 when the Cowboys (1-5) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4), but were hesitant to post betting odds with the status of Jag QB David Garrard still up in the air.
When it was confirmed on Tuesday that Garrard was clear to play and practice, early odds of Dallas -7.5 vanished and the common betting line across the sports betting industry is now Cowboys -6.5.
Dallas has been one of the most heavily wagered on team's this season and it's not unthinkable that this line will move back to -7, as that loss on Monday night might just have been enough to turn off Dallas fans and bettors.
Also note that just because Garrard is clear to practice, there is no guarantee he will start. Backup QB Todd Bouman has thrown just one TD pass since 2005 and has a career record of 1-6 SU as a starter.
"OVER" BETS CASH AT RECORD HIGH
When the Dallas Cowboys poked one last touchdown into the end zone in the closing minutes of Monday night's loss to the New York Giants, it signified the league had reached a milestone that for decades it had struggled to achieve.
Week 7 of the 2010 season was the highest per game scoring average (52.6) in the NFL since 1983.
Sportsbooks are already experiencing a spike in "Over" betting for Week 8 after 10-of-14 games in Week 7 finished above the posted total.
KEEPING UP WITH THE JONES'
As oddsmakers adjust their posted totals for Week 7 and bettors rush to get in at the best available number, game planners in the NFL are also making changes to defensive schemes.
It's tough to say just how much of last week's scoring output was generated by the fear of new punishment for illegal hits but there is one thing we know:
In 2009, the highest number of overs up to Week 16 was 9 (Three-way tie, Week 2, 4 and 10)
All three times, in the following week there was an average fall-off to the under of 2.67 games.
Consider that when handicapping this week's card and don't shy away from value plays on the "Under".
