subject: How to Find Good Bets When Handicapping Horse Races [print this page] How to Find Good Bets When Handicapping Horse Races
If you're trying to find bets that will make a profit when betting on horse races, you're on the right track, so to speak. Just picking winners isn't enough. You have to pick winners that are underestimated by the crowd. Once you've determined that a horse is at the right odds, how you bet on it is important, but if it truly is underestimated, then straight wagers or exotic wagers will usually still produce a positive return.
The whole key is probability and knowing which horses win races. That may sound a bit flippant at first, but let's look a little more closely at what it takes to win and then you'll see my point. There are many kinds of horse races and which kind of race you are trying to figure out will have a direct effect on how you play and even if you play it.
There are maiden races that are run on the turf. A lot has been written about sire ratings and there are some good longshot bets out there when a horse that is bred to love the grass goes the first or second time on that surface. The same is true of stretching out in distance. Using breeding as an angle can still make you money, but you have to know whether or not that is the right angle to use.
There are trainer angles in claiming races that also show a profit. However, once a trainer is known for a particular angle, he or she is usually over bet on that angle and it is hard to make any money on that one. The best place to start if you really want to make money handicapping horse races, is to realize that it takes time and persistence and knowledge. The best way to acquire that knowledge is by handicapping as often as you can and keeping notes.
You must know which angle or method works best for each kind of race. It also helps to know whether favorites win more or less of those types of races. Favorites may only win 27% of maiden turf races at your favorite track, but favorites may also win 40% of the maiden dirt sprints. That is a huge difference and if you want to beat favorites, you can easily see which races offer the best chances.
Gather as much information as you can of this nature and continue to keep track of trends and you may be able to find good bets based on the type of race you're trying to beat. Look for weaknesses in the crowd's decision making, like the example above. Develop a method to exploit their weaknesses and always use probability as a guide to the profitability of a bet.
If you know that the favorite is vulnerable then you should know how often the second favorite wins. A quick look at the odds of the second favorite will tell you if it is a bet that could show a positive return.
