subject: Structural Changes in Natural Gas Markets - Market Research Report [print this page] Structural Changes in Natural Gas Markets - Market Research Report
Introduction
This brief begins with an overview of the economic backdrop, analyzing the key regions of gas supply-demand. We focus on the increasing role of emerging market economies in determining demand and in underpinning prices in the future. The brief then provides a more detailed assessment of supply, shale gas and the rise in LNG capacity. Finally, we present an outlook to 2015 on supply-demand.
Features and benefits
Forecast supply, demand and the price of gas to 2020, based upon geological surveys, sophisticated econometric modelling and economic analysis.
Model the impact of alternative economic and financial market scenarios on the price of natural gas and prepare your business accordingly.
Highlights
Natural gas markets are undergoing a structural shift on an unprecedented magnitude. Weak demand, the shale gas revolution, the ramp up in LNG trade, a supply glut and an shift towards spot-based pricing have all led to a dramatically different outlook for this market than was previously held as little as two years ago.
Unconventional gas has the potential to be a revolutionary game changer and significantly alter the future global energy mix. Although the US energy landscape has been dramatically altered by shale gas, numerous doubts remain when it comes to replicating this internationally. Foremost among these are increased regulation and environmental risks.
Your key questions answered
Understand the key issues affecting current and future supply-demand dynamics for gas in the worlds key markets and regions.
Understand the key issues affecting the changing trends in prices and take or pay contracts.
Effect of the global economic climate on gas market dynamics 7
Unconventional gas development 15
Shale Gas Overview 15
US Shale Gas Production 16
Involvement of global oil and gas companies in shale gas development 19
Challenges in unconventional gas development 22
LNG trade 25
Global LNG Production and Conumption 25
Rising LNG players and outlook 34
Outlook for Global Natural Gas Markets 35
Economic outlook for key natural gas consuming countries 35
Natural gas prices in the US market 36
Regional gas production outlook (200015) 38
Regional gas consumption outlook (200015) 40
APPENDIX 42
Methodology 42
Further reading 42
Ask the analyst 42
Disclaimer 43TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Global changes in gas consumption 2009 over 2008 7
Figure 2: Worlds largest gas consumers 8
Figure 3: The credit crisis and global economic downturn had a dramatic impact on the natural gas markets fundamentals 9
Figure 4: Largest markets for demand growth in 2009 (in percentage terms) 10
Figure 5: Global changes in gas production 2009 over 2008 11
Figure 6: Gas price index of the UK, US and Dutch markets 12
Figure 7: The historic correlation between gas and crude oil prices has broken down, with the former decoupling as oil prices firmed 13
Figure 8: Leading LNG importing countries in 2009: Japan, South Korea and Spain 16
Figure 9: Rising shale gas production has led to a marked pull back in the import of both gas from LNG and via pipelines 17
Figure 10: Numerous shale gas plays are prevalent throughout many of the US states 18
Figure 11: US gas prices have been dampened from surging shale production and record levels of storage 19
Figure 12: The race to develop unconventional gas reserves globally is well under way 20
Figure 13: Despite issues related to population density and stricter environmental regulations producers are ramping up their European exploration activities 22
Figure 14: Top five LNG producers - 2009 25
Figure 15: Top five LNG consumers - 2009 26
Figure 16: Leading LNG importing countries in 2009: Japan, South Korea and Spain 27
Figure 17: Dominant players in LNG export markets in 2009: Qatar, Malaysia and Indonesia 28
Figure 18: Japan, South Korea and Spain consume the bulk of global LNG 29
Figure 19: Percentage changes in imports (2009 over 2008) 30
Figure 20: Volume changes in imports (2009 over 2008) 31
Figure 21: UK LNG Imports: 2009/10 has seen a surge in LNG imports which have helped to lessen the reliance on the UKCS and pipe gas 32
Figure 22: UK LNG Monthly Imports: In 2010, monthly import volumes have doubled and trebled in some instances over the same period one year ago 33
Figure 23: Global gas trade flows (2009) 34
Figure 24: GDP forecasts to 2015: The remarkable GDP growth from the likes of China and India will underpin gas demand in the years ahead 35
Figure 25: Annual average Henry Hub gas price forecasts 36
Figure 26: Annual average Henry Hub gas prices, historical and forecast 37
Figure 27: Global gas production outlook to 2015 38
