subject: Lower Than Ever Medical School Enrollment Rates And Their Effect On Internal Medicine In Texas [print this page] Lower Than Ever Medical School Enrollment Rates And Their Effect On Internal Medicine In Texas
Pending the is a achievement of the current political debate, the healthcare industry will be in limbo. An identical situation happened
when Hillary Clinton was leading the push for healthcare reform in 1993.
Lower Than Ever Medical School Enrollment Rates
3 decades ago, about 730,000 young hopefuls enrolled into medical colleges with the dream of becoming a physician or medical researcher. This may be contributed to the baby boom generation, or it may be due to a generally decreased interest in the medical field in this country. According to the American Medical Association via the Association of American Medical Colleges, it was predicted that this year, that number will have dropped to about 540,000 students. In 1980 the United States' population was 226,545,805. That amount will have increased to 310,232,863 by this year. With approximately a 25 percent fewer medical students enrolling into med school, and eighty five million more people to care for, this only goes to exacerbate the physician impending physician shortage.
Until the recently approved reforms to healthcare are realized, and to the current political shifts and prospective resulting consequences are also, the healthcare industry will be in limbo. The current climate in the industry is very similar to what happened when Hillary Clinton was rallying the push for healthcare reorganization in 93. Only when it becomes clear what the future will be, hospitals and physicians are unable and uneasy to make plans for the trying times to come.
The new health care reform, recently signed into law, from Obama claims to:
* makes coverage providers more reasonably priced by providing the biggest middle class tax decrease for health care in history, reducing premium
costs for millions of families and small business owners who are priced out of coverage today. This helps over 30,000,000 Americans afford health care who do not get it today and makes coverage more within means for many more.
* set up a new competitive health insurance market giving tens of millions of Americans the exact same insurance choices that members of Congress will have.
* bring greater liability to health care by laying out commonsense rules of the road to keep the cost of coverage down and prevent insurance industry abuses and denial of care.
* end discrimination against Americans with pre-existing conditions.
* put our budget and economy on a more stable path by reducing the deficit by $100 billion over the next ten years and about $1 trillion over the second decade by cutting government overspending and reining in waste, fraud and abuse.
It is also clear from their display that they are getting ready for attacks based on expenditure to the American Taxpayer and to the idea that both Social Security and Medicare are at risk, that the change will simply rob Peter to pay Paul. These concerns are addressed upfront: "The Act will protect and preserve Medicare as a commitment to America's seniors. It will save thousands of dollars in drug costs for Medicare beneficiaries by closing the coverage gap called the "donut hole." Doctors, nurses and hospitals will be incentivized to improve care and reduce unnecessary errors that harm patients," and further they state: "The financial health of Medicare will improve and guaranteed benefits will be preserved by ending the 14% average overpayment to private insurance companies under the Medicare Advantage (MA) program." So not only are they protecting Medicare, but they are reducing costs, almost a hat trick.
Weak Economy
With the current economic decline and enormous job losses across the country, these have unswervingly affected the cash flow to doctors and physicians. When jobs are nowhere to be found, the deficit of healthcare benefits is guaranteed, and so access to health care is also. However, many doctors are postponing retirement since watching the stock market crush their retirement funds. This delay will result in a much smaller number of employment opportunities being offered and residents who are graduating not finding as many accessible employment opportunities as before. Residents today appear to prefer not to commit to less desirable employment opportunities, and are choosing locum tenens opportunities. They are also putting off committing to full-time employment because of the scarcity and lower remunerations. So in the predictable future, it appears there will be less and less good career opportunities available.
Demographics: TX and USA
In the United States, the population of 65+ is going to double by 2035 and will max out being almost one fifth of United States inhabitants. In the Lone Star state alone, 62.2% of the residents are between 18 and 65. That accounts for about 15 million more people who will have passed the retirement age in 45 years. There are currently less than three, some studies show less than two, million individuals over the age of 65 right now. At the current rate of inhabitant growth for the state, that is a very steep and sudden climb for any demographic. Even though older citizens are healthier than previous generations, the numbers of disabled and chronic condition sufferers are on the rise. So the demand for health care will rise for the next 25 years and beyond. This is the driving force behind the constant growth for demand of physicians, which may result in shortages of available medical services.
Aging is also directing the supply of physicians. Up to 1/3rd of the current six hundred and fifty thousand practicing physicians will be considering retiring by the year 2020. Texas will be left with less than 30,000 of todays physicians to care for over 30 million people. A shortage of primary care physicians, such as Internal Medicine physicians, is a unique concern due to this, and also the picking of younger doctors to choose to further specialize. The reason behind this is that further specialization beyond general care is needed for higher salaries to pay for their pricey education. The deficiency is expected to hit rural and underserved areas the hardest.
Even with the health bill at last signed into law its effect on our health care is not known. By 2014 their will be an enlargement in the enrollment into health care insurance programs. This increase in intensity when, combined with the long term aging of the residents, should push demand for services and therefore cost higher. However, no one yet knows what will happen to reimbursement rates from Medicare and this new program. The question is will there be rate a cut of reimbursement rates for different specialties by Medicare and this new program that may conversely become a decreasing factor of the income of all specialties, including Internal Medicine.
Clearly the Obama administration has its arms full. We are becoming older and there are fewer young people to carry this mounting financial task. The Sins of the Fathers.....
