subject: Electronic Components: With new and dynamic medium-term investment strategy [print this page] Electronic Components: With new and dynamic medium-term investment strategy
The bottom of the electronics industry is still lingering. Uncertainty in global economic recovery make it difficult to resume short-term consumer confidence, major sectors and sub-regional income and output in 2009 Q1 there were more substantial decline over the previous year, despite the 3G construction and home appliances by domestic factors such as stimulating the countryside, the recent the mainland and Taiwan electronics firms to restore both capacity utilization, but the whole industry is still at the bottom of a fundamental recovery in short-term needs is difficult.
Lack of killer applications will enable industry recovery is long. The new terminal of electronic products continue to emerge and upgrading is to bring the semiconductor and other electronic components industry, a growing source. When the drivers of industrial development by the popularity of new products into the upgrading of products, and the inheritance from growth into maturity, and its development on the cyclical macroeconomic changes and more consistent, which is basically the current electronics industry is experiencing situation. As the bottom compared to the dot.com bubble in 2001, the current product worth looking forward to the killer seems too small, and the weight to see to it clearly has a big gap. Therefore, the recovery of our industry is relatively pessimistic view of prospects, unless the macro-economic recovery has been very strong, otherwise the industry think the scale to new heights will require more than three years time in 12 quarters, even though the electronics industry in a quarter have bottomed out, the recovery process will be very long, built on the optimistic assumption that the recovery is expected to the investment strategy may also face great risks.
Liquidity boost the valuation of the second half of the industry increased risk. Although the electronic decrease profits of listed companies is much higher than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and small company board composition, but by the end of 2008 beginning of liquidity-driven market, its average gain is far higher than the market, electronic components plates relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index valuation premium approach or reach a new high since 2005. This makes the current stock price has basically been overdrawn in the second half recovery in the industry the potential market, the valuation of the plate facing a lot of pressure, if the recovery progress in the second half of the industry can never exceed expectations, the valuation will face a big test.
With the "new" and move, looking for investment margin of safety. High valuations in the industry as a whole, the risk is greater than the opportunity of background, in the second half of the electronics industry investment, the key is to find a safety margin of the company. From stock selection perspective, there are two basic clues, one low valuation, performance stable growth companies, and second, although the higher valuation, but its product business with explosive growth potential and relatively high uncertainty of the company . From the sub-sector level, it may show only new industries explosive growth, emerging LED industry, our most promising development of the industry, all sectors of the industry chain from the point of view, in the country, "10 City 10 000" LED street lamp project promoted , domestic enterprises with traditional lighting sources strengths and the international leader in non-competitive cooperation is more likely to be rapid development.
Recommended investment focus points. Qingdao soft control: Product line extensions and new business development simultaneously, an increase of clear and obvious advantages valuation; GRG: steady growth in demand, shares continued to improve, with the valuation advantage; Topband Electronics: the gradual release of large customer orders, new products commercial in good shape, the explosive growth prospects in the clear; Foshan Lighting: energy saving products meet the background of steady growth in demand, enhance growth into the LED lighting space; song acoustic Seoul: clear transfer capacity, large customer orders will gradually release, production utilization of fast recovery, market share rapidly.
