subject: Grading the Boston Red Sox's World Series Chances With an Odds Checker [print this page] Grading the Boston Red Sox's World Series Chances With an Odds Checker
Las Vegas, Nevada, April 9, 2011 - Apparently the Boston Red Sox are not grasping the concept of winning in this year's Major League Baseball season. Most of the Boston fans have heard of the statistic that no team has ever reached the World Series after starting the season 0-5. To compound their problems, only two teams out of 128 have made the playoffs after starting the MLB season 0-4. But statistics don't always tell the whole story.
According to Dharkko Manning, founder of BettinGenius Sports Investing, 'Despite the fact that the Boston Red Sox had a below average 2010 season that saw them drop their playoff chances from 60% to 10% between the months of May and June, Major league baseball is a sport where teams can make one solid run before the month of May and be back in the race regardless of early troubles.'
In fact, the statistics showing that teams have trouble making the playoffs with 0-4 starts only dates back to 1995 when the wild card was instituted. Considering professional baseball has been around for almost 150 years, dating back to the Cincinatti Red Stockings of 1869, the stats don't offer much in the way of sample size.
It seems that the true experts to predict winners and losers of sporting events on a daily basis would be found in Las Vegas. A look at a World Series odds checker reflects Vegas's confidence in the Red Sox despite their poor start. At the time of this article, the Boston Red Sox were still second, at odds of +300 to win the World Series, behind the Philadelphia Phillies (+220), and ahead of the New York Yankees (+500), and the Texas Rangers (+600). However, don't tell this to Boston-area fanatics:
Said fan Charlie Bakt, 'I'm desperately hoping for some victories; it's a young season. I saw this team in spring training and there's a lot of talent but they're very inconsistent. I'm not sure they came into this season as prepared physically as they should have. That's something that you can control, so I put that on the head coach Terry Francona, especially after the bad finish we had last year ending up 88-74. We missed the playoffs and we're the Boston Red Sox. I'm very disappointed - that's all I can say.'
Even if some of the Boston fans don't care what an odds checker or Las Vegas says, they expect more from a team that has a total roster expense of over $162 million. Boston GM Theo Epstein can't be too happy either with those types of figures and no returns yet to speak of with a record of 1-7.
Says Manning, 'Until Boston ends up with a significant losing record by the time May rolls around, it would be an overreaction to say that Boston has no chance to make the playoffs. Are they a great team? Probably not, but with so many games to go, maybe they'll figure it out and put in a streak at the right time.'
