subject: Tips for Calculating Your Odds for Winning at Holdem [print this page] Tips for Calculating Your Odds for Winning at Holdem
If you think you can play winning holdem without calculating your odds you are sadly in error. Poker math is an essential tool for playing successfully at any level. Some calculations are easy while others require some practice to accomplish.
I want to share with you two aspects of thinking about the math that I have found quite useful in my own play. The first is taking the time to learn to estimate the size of the pot. The second is determining where you stand against potential hands your opponents may hold.
Estimating the Size of the Pot
If you don't know the size of the pot, you cannot calculate the pot odds to know if you are getting the right price to call. Playing online, the pot size is always there so this is not a problem. You can always create the fraction of call over pot to estimate the odds the pot is offering. A $25 bet into a pot of $100 yields odds of 4:1. If your hand is 4:1 or less to complete, your call is correct.
Playing live, however, places a different burden on you. The pot size is not as clearly obvious as it is online. You have to count the pot to estimate your odds. In limit holdem you can count the pot size based on the number of bets made. Bets are the size of the big blind and big bets are double the big blind. If you simply count the number of bets and divide that into the size of the bet you are required to make to call you have a pretty good idea about the price the pot is offering.
In no-limit the problem becomes a bit more difficult. Because you can bet any amount with the minimum bet being the size of the big blind, the pot size cannot necessarily be determined by counting bet size. Paying closer attention to the bets being made and doing a rough estimation of the size of the pot preflop goes a long way in helping you calculate the pot size. If you have a pretty good idea of the pot size before the flop then you can simply have a few bets memorized to know the price of the pot. These bets come in increments of pot size. If a bet is made that is 1/3 the size of the pot the price the pot is offering is 3:1. A bet of half the pot yields pot odds of 2:1 while a bet of 2/3 the pot means you are getting 1.5:1 for a call. A pot sized bet is even money.
Knowing these basic odds means you can make better decisions when you have a decision to make when you have a strong drawing hand.
Determining Where You Stand
A common situation in which you have a post flop middle pair which you are reluctant to throw away. While it is almost never a good thing to fall in love with a pair, it is sometimes appropriate to bet with one, if only to probe a bit.
The Gordon Pair Principle states:
"Let C = percent chance someone left to act has a bigger pocket pair Let N = number of players left to act Let R = number of higher ranks than your pocket pair (i.e., if you have Q-Q, there are two ranks higher. If you have 8-8, there are six ranks higher)"
The formula looks like this: C = (N x R) / 2
Say you have a pair of tens in a hand where there are 3 players, you and two others, in the hand. There are four ranks higher than your pair so the calculation looks like this:
C=(3x4)/2 or C=6
According to the Gordon Pair Principle, there is a six percent chance that one of your two opponents has a pair higher than yours or 15:1 against.
I find this principle to be quite effective in making decisions when I am holding a pair. While Phil Gordon first proposed this calculation as a tool for deciding whether to shove in a tournament, I find it quite useful when I am playing in cash games as well.
