subject: Recent high-yield steel price trend will be restricted - steel price - Machinery Industry [print this page] Recent high-yield steel price trend will be restricted - steel price - Machinery Industry
Since the April 14 round steel prices since the first one off adjustment Key Time point after May 10, then the market outlook, how to run? Is a rebound, or continue to adjust, or down?
First of all, from a policy and macro surface area, despite the expected follow-up of 1-2 weeks there should not be a big-control policies introduced, the international economy will further deteriorate the situation has been contained, but the overall is still bearish.
Speaking from the domestic environment, over the past 10 days, the Government has twice used the quantitative monetary control policy, one was on May 2 announced the one-time raising the deposit reserve rate by 0.5 basis points, to reach the 17% close to a new high in recent years; other was on May 6 announced the release of 110 billion 3-year central votes. In fact, the industry has such control is expected, from the "51" before the holiday three relevant statements by the central bank can predict also the central bank from April 15 release of "the first quarter of 2010, China's macroeconomic situation analysis" in the disclosure of some important data can be judged: for example, the GDP chain in 2010 (12.2%) in 2005-2009, relatively high chain growth rate, monthly industrial output gap (in March has risen to 3.06% for 7 months to expand) expanding corporate goods prices rose chain 5 months, these data indicate that commodity price increases continue to expand. Therefore, these two further increase the intensity of regulation, and achieve "long term", "short" `c combination. These results indicate that the pressure of raising interest rates further buffer, at least by the end of May before the rate hike is unlikely.
Terms from the international environment, the Greek crisis led to strikes, making the crisis to deepen and spread of the global financial markets so quickly has been a significant response, increasing the awareness of the economic outlook is expected to panic, but also Rogers really a bit like a year ago, as predicted, the next round of crisis is a currency crisis situation. But I believe that with the Japan injected 2 trillion yen of emergency and the G7 finance ministers held an emergency conference call, the crisis worsened the situation will be effectively contained. On the other hand, the introduction of the New Deal and the associated events will help buffer the heat slightly China's economic regulation of the pressure, the follow-up for the steel market for some time (the specific length of time, to participate in MRI of internal reports or exchange) stability and create a better economic environment.
Second, look from the side of the industry, 5 months, little change in supply and demand, supply growth showed relatively strong growth in demand relative weaknesses.
Exchange and from the recent survey Mysteel situation, domestic steel production cuts of enthusiasm is not high, estimated daily average crude steel output in May is likely to remain at 1.85 million tons or more. While the demand is concerned, we can not see obvious signs of growth, steel inventories are increasing, some downstream users still continue to use pre cheap raw materials, and some inventory is increasing urban society, some reductions are limited. Part of the international market is also slowing demand growth. The short term, the fundamentals in this industry, I believe the steel mill would have felt it difficult to continue upward pressure on prices. The medium and long terms, in currency regulation and control growing conditions, this piling up of stocks with the funds once the risk of outbreaks should be more pieces of terrible things.
