subject: Guidelines for Counting Outs [print this page] Guidelines for Counting Outs Guidelines for Counting Outs
Successful holdem players know where they stand in a hand because they count their outs. An out is a card that, if it comes, improves your hand often to the winner. Counting outs is not as easy as one might think. It is not just a matter of figuring out what might help your hand but also discounting cards that, although they might improve your hand, may give your opponent an even better one.
Say you have a 7c-8c in your hand and the flop comes 2c-5c-Qd. You are in late position heads up against the under the gun bettor. How many outs can you safely consider as you decide whether or not to chase your flush on the turn?
Let's say as an example your opponent has the Kc-Jc with this flop. He too has a flush draw but no matter what club hits the board your hand will be second best. In fact, if he holds a flush draw with any club 9 or better he has your flush crushed. In this case, you have no outs to a flush draw even though you might count 9 outs. At the very least with a baby flush draw you should discount at the very minimum 2 of the possible outs to zero leaving 7 douts or discounted outs. To be on the safe side, if your opponent bets into you for a small raise, I would discount 4 outs leaving 5 douts. This makes it unattractive to chase a club.
On the other hand, if your opponent checks to you in this situation, a bet of around three-quarters the size of the pot to a pot sized bet should chase away any flush draw because the price is simply not right.
Let's look at another example. You have the 8h-8d in middle position. You raised and was called by the button. Heads-up, the flop turned over the 8s-4c-Kd. You flopped a set. There are no apparent straight or flush draws on this board. You bet half the pot and the button calls. You have one out to improve, the case 8 and an additional 6 outs to pair the board which would fill you up. You believe your opponent to hold something like A-K through A-J. In this case, unless your opponent is slow-playing K-K there is no need to discount any outs you might have and it is likely that you have the best hand at this point. His having K-K is 220:1 against so it is an unlikely scenario.
As you count outs you must consider:
1. Your total outs.
2. What you think your opponent has.
3. Are there reasons to discount your outs?
4. What is your position relative to your opponent?
5. Can a bet price your opponent out of the hand?
As you consider each of these points before you act, you are also considering what you know about your opponent. If your opponent is a tight-passive player, then his non-action may not be too revealing and chasing a straight or flush may be incorrect much of the time.
If your opponent tends to be loose-aggressive, then it is difficult to put your opponent on any kind of hand. More often than not, chasing a draw may be enhanced if you consider the implied odds if you make your hand.
In the long run, calculating odds goes hand in glove with observational skills allowing you to read your opponent. Putting the two together means winning pokerPeriod!
