subject: Horse Racing Information About Factors That Are Not All the Same [print this page] Horse Racing Information About Factors That Are Not All the Same
As you handicap horse races looking for the right bet on the right horse, it is wise to remember that even though it's a good idea to look at all the factors, each one has to be weighted according to how important it is in that particular race. The way that you figure out whether speed is more important than class or one of the other considerations, for instance, is research and knowledge.
The research may mean something as complicated as a computer printout of all races over that track at that distance for horses of that age or may be as simple as paying attention while you're at the track and noticing which horses seem to win the most often. An example of this is a person who goes to the track three times a week for two months. If he or she is smart he or she will keep those used programs and past performances so that a study can be done.
The handicapper should look over the old programs and make a note of each horse that won and where it stood in the hierarchal order for each of the major factors such as class, speed, form, pace, connections, etc. A point system is often helpful so that you can determine just how much faster or classier one horse is over the rest of the field.
The reason for this is that weighting factors is done in two ways. First of all, looking at all the races you can ask yourself how often did the horse with top class or form or speed win the race. If you have twenty five races in your study and the speed horse won ten times then the answer is 10/25 = 40%. That gives you an overall idea of how important speed is as a factor when you're trying to assign fair odds to each runner.
The other way you can weight the different categories is by assigning a value to each one. For instance, in the case of speed an average speed figure for their last three races at the distance and surface may work. Since the figures are numerical to begin with, it is easy to see the spread. The same is true of the average price that a horse earned per start. You may find that there is a tipping point when a runner has an advantage of a certain amount.
Maybe runners that have earned at least 50% more per start than their competitors win 45% of the time. That is a huge advantage and may make that one factor the decision maker. You may then say that one factor is at least seventy five percent of the story as far as deciding which horse will win, but of course, you should still look at all of them.
Finally, when looking at these categories and statistics remember that you are looking for a good bet, in other words, one that will make a profit for you if you make the same bet ten times. Even if a horse does dominate one category, if it is over bet then there may still be value with another horse.
