subject: How to Handicap Maiden Horse Races and How to Know Which Ones to Bet On [print this page] How to Handicap Maiden Horse Races and How to Know Which Ones to Bet On
Maiden (non-winners) horse races are considered too risky by some bettors because they feel the young runners haven't had a chance to prove what they can do and that they are too unpredictable. While it is true that the younger the horse, the more likely it is that he or she is still in the stages of development, it doesn't mean that reasonable handicapping decisions can't be made regarding the probability of a win.
Are the youngsters as mysterious as they first appear? Quite to the contrary. One good standard to use to determine how true to form horses run in any given category of races is to check the average of winning favorites. Maidens usually show a high percentage of winners from the crowd's choices. This means that what the punters see on paper is also demonstrated on the track.
The first thing you should know is which maiden races are playable and which ones are not. My personal favorites are maiden claiming races with no first time starters. In a claiming race, the trainer is telling you what he or she thinks the animal's ability level may be. If you look at maiden special weight races where the horse is not for sale, or claim as it is called, there may be a stakes winner in the field running against horses who will never win. In a maiden claiming race, however, class is being established for you.
The problem of first time starters is probably the one thing that keeps many people from betting on races for the non-winners. They may have been burned in the past when a first time starter won a race where they'd backed another horse and since then they consider all maiden races a poor gamble. The trick is to stick to races with no first time starters or with just one. If there is one first time starter and the trainer doesn't have a history of winning with first timers and the sire isn't known for producing precocious foals, it may still be a playable race.
You will often find a young horse with a few races that is rounding into form and learning how to compete that is going off at reasonable odds in a maiden race. Such horses are good bets and often produce good payoffs. Most maidens haven't had time to develop a lot of physical problems or bad habits like older horses. The best way to handicap is to look for the maiden who has shown the most speed and has raced at the distance before.
