subject: How to Choose an MLB Handicapper [print this page] How to Choose an MLB Handicapper How to Choose an MLB Handicapper
The options for an MLB handicapper have grown over the last several years to rival the choices made in other popular sports such as the NFL or the NBA. One relatively new type of wager is a bet on the first half of an MLB game. Depending on the sports book you go to, this usually encompasses the first five innings of a game rather than the true midpoint of 4.5 innings. This is a good starting point for beginning MLB handicappers since there are fewer variables to take into account when handicapping. For example, in a typical first five innings, it is much more likely that only one pitcher will be used on each team. This means that you have less guess work in regards to how relievers will perform. There are also fewer changes to a lineup, so you will not have to guess which players from the bench will be asked to play.
A good MLB handicapper can make much more money off of the first five innings than they can off of complete games because of the smaller chance that non-starters will be put into the game. It is also easier to find a sports book's error in these first halves. Because first halves rely so heavily on statistics, analyzing the statistical data is more important than doing the guess work of how teams will perform under late-game pressure with fresh players. Having a database of up-to-date information on how starters have performed over the season will allow the good MLB handicapper to better predict how the teams that they are looking at will, on the average, perform given the current situation. Sports books make errors occasionally, and if your database can find these errors, you stand a much better chance of profiting.
Sometimes, sports books will just copy their lines from bigger sports books. This makes errors much more prevalent since big sports books might have already adjusted their lines to account for swings in betting that have already occurred. An example of this might occur when a wealthy bettor places a large bet. In order to compensate, the book might adjust the line to encourage more bets on the other side. If another book copies the line at this point, they are straying from the original true linethus giving the astute bettor an opportunity to profit from the line being slightly skewed.
If you are equipped to spot these errors, you can profit quite a bit with your MLB handicapping. You can find the necessary statistics online, or you can compile your own stats with a spreadsheet. Either way, the goal is to analyze the data more completely than the book. First halves are easier to handicap than complete games making it that much easier to determine when a sports book has made an error.
