subject: Does Gbagbo fear ICC prosecution? [print this page] Does Gbagbo fear ICC prosecution? Does Gbagbo fear ICC prosecution?
To Fear or not to fear? that is not the question
By: J SinankouaTo go or not to go, that is the question which never crossed Gbagbo's mind when it became clear that he had lost the elections on 28 November 2010.Having decided beforehand that he would stay put as long as his health is good,the real issue for the dictator of Abidjan came to be reduced to how much time he would be granted by the International community to carry out the most blatant electoral hijack in modern Africa. The inconsistencies of the International community and its internal contradictions have convinced the dictator that despite some condemnations, he can weather the early storm and stay in office for as long as he wishes. Throughout a career spanning forty years Gbagbo has demonstrated in numerous occasions that he is the master of deceit hence his nickname "le boulanger" or the baker who shakes hands over deals then deny them shortly afterwards. His faithfuls see him as clever, cunning and a man with a great deal of fire in the belly ; some even push their gullible admiration by crediting him of bringing "democracy" in the country. In the light of recent events however, some friends who have known the man for a long time are baffled and bemused and are wondering whether they had known him at all . How can someone who has championed democratisation and free elections for so long end up paying lip service to the very values he stood for? They have been asking. A number of answers have cropped up to explain the somehow "out-of character" behaviour exhibited lately by the self-proclaimed "son of elections". The spectrum of answers ranges from the plausible to the downright ridiculous such as the idea that the constitutional council declared him the victor and therefore he is entitled to remain in power. One of the answers however merits some attention as it raises a genuine concern among some African intellectuals; Indeed in some quarters, it is believed that the fear of prosecution or persecution might be at the back of Gbagbo's mind to be clinging on power, after all Charles Taylor is now on trial at the International Criminal Court and there are some people who would also dearly like to see Hissen Habre ( former Chad leader) indicted as well. Proponents of the fear of prosecution theory can point to at least two good reasons that may explain Gbagbo's refusal to cede power to his challenger.1- There is no independence of the judiciary vis-a-vis the executive in the Ivory Coast as a result no legal action against Gbagbo will ever stand a chance as long as he remains in power.2- The complementarity principle adopted by the ICC is potentially a serious impediment to a successful prosecution while he remains in power.The lack of independence of the judiciary is not a prima- facie systemic problem in the Ivory Coast, in principle the separation of power is enshrined in the constitution. This is an issue of enforcement and above all it is a matter of culture whereby men in power have enjoyed a status of untouchable dating back to the colonial period. Outside the corridor of power, one becomes vulnerable.It is reasonable to foresee a scenario where prosecution may succeed if the accused has little or no political influence ; a former president could perfectly find himself in the dock if the new regime decides so. It follows that, remaining in power appears a pretty safe tactic to secure "immunity" from prosecution in the Ivory Coast and this very fact is also an enormous obstacle to an international prosecution.The international Criminal court does not hear a matter unless the local judiciary is unable or unwilling to prosecute someone who has allegedly committed a crime against humanity or a war crime. Although the prosecutor may trigger an investigation into allegations of crimes under the court's remit or a matter may be referred by the security council of the United Nations, the complementarity principle could impede a hearing in a country where the executive issues orders to the judiciary. Another handicap in the ICC system is that the security council hardly reaches unanimity over such crimes as war crimes or crimes against humanity; one man's criminal is an other's trade or strategic partner.Giving the advantages of remaining in power and the apparent weaknesses of the International prosecution system , the question is whether Gbagbo would be vulnerable to prosecution.It is obvious that relinquishing power would in principle pave the way for a prosecution if so wish his successor. The acrimonious end of his power leaves no doubt to think otherwise and in addition some political parties and civil organisations have already compiled what they call solid dossiers since 2004 and would relish any opportunities to wield them as basis for a legal action against him. Gbagbo himself has not helped to quash the allegations of serious human rights violations; He described the circumstances in which he came to power as "calamitous" and in the aftermath of the bloodbath observed in 2004 when the security forces allegedly killed score of peoples, he declared " a thousand dead on the left and thousand dead on the right, I just march on". Under his watch allegations of "death squads" have been persistent and they have been alleged to carry out kidnappings, extra judicial killings and many disappearances. The name of his wife Simone has been closely associated with the aforementioned "death squads" and the episode of the toxic waste dumped on the cost of Abidjan in 2007 combine to make a potential explosive concoction of crimes that might end up before the International court. Out of office in a country where the bulk of the power is at the hands of the executive, Gbagbo runs a serious risk of being brought to book. These may be plausible reasons to account for what is now happening in the Ivory Coast but there are other reasons deeper than the risk of prosecution.The psychological reasons that explain Gbagbo's behaviour outweigh any threat of prosecution. He has never contemplated a defeat hence his election slogan " on gagne ou on gagne" in other words we win or we win.In addition Gbagbo has conditioned himself in believing that having" seen off" Houphouet who passed away in 1993, Bedie who was overthrown in 1999 and General Guei in 2000, no-obstacle remained to yield the reward from his lifetime struggle to rule his country. In Gbagbo's mind, the suffering endured ( he was jailed several times under Houphouet's regime) deserve a lifetime presidency and Ouattara whom he sees as neofyte and a non-politician and a "foreigner" does not merit an inch of power.www.focusafrica.co.ukhttp://www.articlesbase.com/news-and-society-articles/does-gbagbo-fear-icc-prosecution-4304210.html
