subject: Russian Media: Russia Witnesses That The Oriental Dragon China Slows Down The Pace [print this page] According to Russian media reports, China's rapid economic growth seems to become a thing of the past soon. Currently, we are witnessing that this oriental dragon is slowing down and this will be a long cycle. However, even so, China can still act as the locomotive of the global economy. In addition to China, we can only look forward to scientific and technological progress.
Why we can make the following expectation that is China's rapid economic growth will soon end and the current slowdown is actually a long process? There are many reasons, but the most important are demographic reasons. Return on capital will continue to decline because of the fact that cheap labor in China is running out. After 30 years ago, the Chinese capital investment has almost used up the spare labor resources.
Whats China's future path of development? Japan is the best lesson. In the population, Beijing will soon be reduced to a similar situation similar to Tokyo. In Japan, the ratio between the population aging 20 years to 59 years and the population aging over 60 has been decreased from 5:1 in 1973 to 2:1 in 2006, and the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate fell from 8% to less than 2%.
China is also facing such a crisis, but the period during which it slides to the aging society is much shorter than in Japan. At present, the proportion of the Chinese labor force and older people is 5:1, but in 2033, the proportion will drop to 2:1 steeply. This makes some very real and sharp problems surface, for example, whether China's economic policy considerations on the demographic realities is proper? At present, China is to rely on large loans to stimulate economic growth, and its premise is the number of the payer of the debt and interest should be larger than the number of pure consumer (ie, retirees).
In other words, although the level of investment in China is unprecedented, the return rate will become less and the population relying on national investment for a survival will be larger. more while the population of new labor force is dwindling.
