subject: Netpicks 2011 Market Outlook Webinar Transcript Part 5 [print this page] 2011 NetPicks Market Outlook 2011 NetPicks Market Outlook
Transcript Part 5 of 7
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Everything else is out of my hand. I can only trade my plan that Ive proven over time works for me. So do I want to scroll forward one. Let me get some long-term plays. Yeah, I had -- and tell you what. Also what I want to look at, as this year progresses, Ive had two really nice long-term trades in the pounds-Swiss the U.S. dollar-yen. Unfortunately, I couldnt add to the pound-Swiss but the U.S. dollar-yen gave me some nice additions and both of those combined were well over 3,000 pips. And I want to find more opportunities like that to get into the start of the higher timeframe swings and most of this is off a weekly chart positional-style plays, you know. This is -- these are spot Forex. The spot Forex is really, really good for longer term trading or swing trading, day trading and -- Ill get into that in a second -- you know, spread cost can really smack you around, you know, if youre trading -- a standard lot, for example. And pips too, you begin a two pips spread, you already know at 20 bucks. You know, you look at other markets, youre not paying that just to get into the trade. So I'm -- I'm going into that in a little bit more.
Utilize the Ultimate Swing Trader. Thats our swing trading strategy that NetPicks has, to zero in on the entries on lower time frames, when higher time frames are at critical levels. And all I'm saying here is, when I look at a weekly chart, and its at a level thats historically proven to be a pretty strong level, we dont know if you see something at a higher time frame, right? You go down to a lower time frame, you didnt get in that move early. And what does that do? It lessens your risk, right, so you can put more positions on, keeping to your 2% or 1% of whatever youre doing, so you have a bigger position if this trade goes on your favor. And with the pound Swiss and the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen trade I had, the risk was very, very small on these trades but position sizing is -- was pretty decent. So, you know, I wasnt picking up pennies on these trades, which -- you know, thats what you want to do.
Utilize pure price movements at all levels. You know, I'm a big person for trading a strategy, but at the same time, I really want to educate myself on price itself, right? Every strategy used that is indicator-based, especially, what leads the way? Price has to be present before the indicators do. All right, and a lot of people, what they do is theyll trade an indicator-based strategy and just focus on the indicators, what theyre doing and not putting in perspective of where the chart is, what the chart is telling you. And I'm gonna show that with my gold chart in a second, cause thats one of my things I want to do in the New Year. So longer-term plays is basically looking at some longer term trades in the spot Forex because its perfect for that.
For years, I was a euro-yen-pound-U.S. trader short-term. Anyone here thats a NetPicks customer and I've spoken to so many newbie e-mail, and in the rooms, know that that was my favorite pairs. Around September, the euro-yen just decided to get really ugly for whatever reason, and it doesnt matter what the reason was, it just got ugly. The pound-U.S. did okay up until December, we had some problems as well, but whats happened was when the Seven Summits Trader came out, I used to never trade the euro-U.S.dollar. Euro -- the euro-U.S. dollars such a heavily traded pair. Its one of the most popular pairs to trade, if not the most popular pair to trade. And when you have all these different market participants in it, what are you gonna get is different levels where, you know, the bigger players have positions, right, so foreign resistance take place. And you just find yourself getting beat up left, right and center and you get stuck in between that.
The Seven Summits Trader, the five-minute chart on the euro-U.S. dollar, for me, I did some testing on it, started trading in December, I love it, I love it, especially with the-- the add-on in the trades that you can do, especially when it comes off to reversals, now for -- this is open to everybody so not everyone knows what I'm talking about now but, hopefully, youve come to a webinar, the reversals then you get the basic trade that sets up after that and you can add onto that with the trailing. Its -- its -- its a -- its a phenomenal euro-U.S. dollar I like trading at.
The built-in scale feature, expecting further price moves until proven otherwise, right? Thats what you -- thats what scaling is all about, right? Or trailing is all about. Thats how youve proven that this -- this trend is over, you want to ride as long as you can, right? If it is short, take as much as the market wants to give us, so Im gonna have my fixed targets, right? Bag some profits, and then you know what? Let the market give what its going to give me. And when the euro-U.S. dollars move was in good action, I dont really see a need to look at other pairs. I've looked at the pound-U.S. on 233, SST -- good market. I've looked at other pairs, the -- with the SST but I do not want to burden myself with too many pairs to look at, especially when I'm thinking of moving into a more -- a different market to trade and Ill tell you that in a second. I think its at the end of the slide. Ill just take a look at what -- yeah, on this line, its okay.
Lets go to Buy Gold, my Buy Gold charts, my next one. One great thing about NetPicks people is that number one, theyre all traders and when you -- when youre in a room full of people that are all traders, you find always different markets, you know. We have soy beans, we have wheat, weve got, you know, gold, silver, oil, I -- I've never traded those, you know. I started trading in the FX stock market, one of the hardest markets to trade. Not that its hard, I guess. Its just it can be pretty bloody expensive, if its a pair your -- your -- your -- your -- your trading, so you have to find a decent broker for that. But because of the vast experience that NetPicks has, my eyes have opened to gold
Now, heres the problem. When I watch the charts the second half of 2010, and that, you know, the first move up, the train left the station, I wasnt onboard, you know, I would stay on the sideway then goodbye to it. But heres whats interesting is, I hear -- I live in -- I live in Toronto, Canada and Ill be driving down and the guy will come on the radio, Now is a great time to buy gold, right, so its a company that sells gold. You know, prices are at all time high and I'm gonna show you in a second, what a bad move that is, buy markets at all-time high -- so Ill show you in a second. And I'm not gonna be suckered into the traps.
Then thats when we go to this next chart right here. We are on -- owners webinar back in December 3rd and that was open to all NetPicks customers, you know, from, you know, present to past. And so we all get together and we just go over certain, you know, things that weve come up with and I want to talk about -- one thing I want to talk about was supply and demand. And to do that, I brought up the gold chart. And -- no, the hard evidence of this chart is December 3rd, okay, and I said on that day, you know, where were -- were gold is. I would not be a buyer here. First, I want to buy gold, but I'm definitely not gonna buy where it is right now, and I had reasons for that. And the reasons were, number one, in the area that were out -- were at on December 3rd, there was a lot of selling pressure as you can clearly see. But I was also afraid of one thing -- new highs. You know, people get all excited. You know, the news is saying, Buy gold, its all time highs. That is the time I personally do not want to buy. While the news is great, I'm not planning to be a buyer, I'm looking for something else.
And we go to the next slide here. This is the current chart. You see what happened. We got people buying up into the new highs, they got suckered into that, because the day they bought is the day that it fell. They bought the new high and then look what happened and now, it -- it tried again, right? More buyers got suckered in, and what happened, it fell. So I want to get into gold. I have never bought gold. I never thought you could buy gold, you know. And just whole thought of owning gold just -- it kind of mean something to me. So what I'm looking at doing is this. I got a -- an area down the -- about 1247 or 1250 is a comfort area -- its that area right there. Ill look for a buying opportunity there. Now, Im saying I'm gonna buy there, unless you go -- the price does -- but thats an interesting area for me. And I'm also looking if it does decide to break above these highs, Ill let it go and, hopefully, get a pullback, you know. I -- I dont want to but new highs that you could see what happens when you buy new highs, a lot of times, you get taken out and thats not what I want to do.
So, you know, part of my thing for this year is -- is getting on the gold, I want to say bandwagon, but the bandwagon is buying as its breaking the highs, so I want to do it in a more -- a structured kind of way. And this is all just, you know, over the course of this year, I've educated myself on -- on -- on price action, on supply and demand. Thats something I brought into my own day trading. And I want to keep this really short so we go to the last slide here.
Miscellaneous. You know, I want to continue with spending my own knowledge of supply and demand on the markets. You know, I'm a big believer. You know, just because you may be okay at something doesnt mean you cannot be better. You dont want to sit on your -- on your laurels and say, Hey, I had a great year in 2010 because my 2010 was pretty decent. I'm very happy with it. But, you know, these are the markets were trading, right? Whos to say 2011 is gonna be 2010 and before I end this -- this miscellaneous, theres something I want to bring up as well. I want to explore FX futures for day trading. I knew this would gonna come out. Only because, you know what, its more centralized and weve seen it all the time. When youll be in a great trade, you could spike out, widespread wideness right in the spot of Forex. And thats the problem when you day trade spot Forex, is you can get stuck in these little moves. The Forex futures market a totally different. I want to explore that option by FX spot trading for longer term player -- plays, yes.
I also want to look at a more systematic withdrawal of my funds from my account. You know, I've got a set amount that I want to keep in my account that will allow me to still trade these specific sizing so I still make decent money. But, at the same time, I dont want to leave it sitting there, you know. I -- I -- we all heard it, too big to fail. Why dont we get anything thats too big to fail and I dont want to lose my money and its better on my pocket than in my brokers pocket, so I'm gonna need -- leave what I need in there and just have a more systematic withdrawal funds, you know. We do want to treat trading as a business, correct? And to do that, we want to pay ourselves when youre in a position to do so. I want to look at other markets such as wheat, silver and S&P E-mini. I want to take a look at those. I -- I -- I'm not too educated on those but weve got guys on this NetPicks staff that know this stuff inside and out. I want to talk quickly about -- I'm looking at here -- dollar index chart.
You know whats interesting is, I -- I've -- I talked about dollar index back in December and for traders out there, they are looking at dollar index to make their place off of. You know, what I find interesting about the dollar index, if anyone is not used to that and I want to get more of the dollar index this year, is that it just measures the -- the U.S. dollar against the whole basket of currencies, right now, the whole lot. The euro, unfortunately, is -- is -- is weighted the heaviest. Now, do the euro-U.S. dollar chart and looks like the U.S. dollar is strong, right? Well, against the euro, it is. But against other currencies its very, very weak. So U.S. dollar index, just because of the way we are right now and then in the -- in the global climate, I think it could be very, very misleading of the strength in the U.S. dollar index simply because of its weight into euro. Real estate, as well. I will touch on that quickly. Housing prices, people are saying weve got houses in our area that are been up for sale for a long time, you know. I've heard it from a lot of people that buying right now would be a horrible investment to do as -- if you look at investing on real estate. And the problem is you got this perfect storm right here, you got prices that are kind of high, but you have low interest rates. But we all know whats gonna happen soon, right? Interest rates are gonna get higher.
So you got options. If youre looking for real estate right now, youve got two options to look at. You either got looking at a buying a house thats overvalued, but, again, at this interest rate? Of course, you got the flipside by buying a cheaper house at a higher interest rate. What a really weird time in a -- in our global climate. I do -- I think the U.S. will -- will recover? You know what? The U.S. -- the U.S. is a strong, strong nation and I think over time, they -- they -- they will come back. I still have faith in the U.S. dollar for now, but -- then I -- I mean, I -- I mean, Canada, so I do a lot of exchanging with the U.S. dollar and Canadian dollar and I gotta tell you, I lose money when I transfer U.S. into Canadian, so you guys gotta get stronger.
So thats it for me. One more quick thing. Anyone thats kind of new, you just want to play around with some charts, NinjaTrader. We dont promote anything here. Just -- we all know that, I trade with NinjaTrader, but for traders, I want to look at end-of-day data. They have a nice little -- you can get a free end-of-day data now with -- with their new provider for free, its Kinetick. You have to download Ninja 7, so you can get that in just, you know, for those that are looking at end-of-day strategies, you dont have to pay for your feed cause its free from Kinetick. And I think thats it. I think thats it. I want -- oh, one more thing.
Mark Soberman: All right.
Shane Daly: And one more thing. You touched on something more -- right at the beginning of the presentation I caught it, and you said a lot of traders, what they have and they have no records, no rules or anything like that. And that was the -- as my -- my function to NetPicks, I talked to a lot of traders and if theres one thing that I could stress to every trader out there, or every want to be trader, is you gotta be this as a business. Theres too many times traders will say, Look, this doesnt work. and I have asked them, Send me your back test. Send me your rules. Send me your diary. Send me anything. It doesnt come. They dont have it. They just throw the stuff up on the chart and they just start trading. One thing I said last year, one that really helped me as a -- as a trader is, when youre trading, you videotape yourself trading. You can go to camstudio.org, I believe it is, you can download a free screen capture software and record yourself as youre taking your trades, record your thoughts, you know, think out as youre trading and you can definitely find ways to improve your trading that way as well. So thats all I want to cover and thanks for listening.
Mark Soberman: Great. Yeah, and I appreciate that. Thanks, Shane. And then you can see, has everybody -- all the coaches go that weve kind of all made these plans for 2011 and -- and the same thing, you know, all of you -- probably a lot of you havent done it, but its certainly something that hopefully youll walk away from this and go ahead and do some work on that, from what, you know, you want to achieve in 2011 and what markets you want to look out, what you want to change as well. So our next stop, I've got -- lets take Ron. So, Ron, would you like me to head off to you or how do you want to do it?
Ron Weiland: Yeah, go ahead on that send me the control.
Mark Soberman: Sure, yup. Okay, you should have it.
Ron Weiland: Okay. you gotta transition chart or a --
Mark Soberman: Ive got your -- I see the Seven Summits Trader and I see a chart.
Ron Weiland: Yup, okay. Well, you see the -- the PowerPoint Oil will hit 100?
Mark Soberman: We did a moment ago and now I just see the transition chart.
Ron Weiland: Okay. Then I -- I will just try on which of these screens. It will be up. All right. So it should be back now with the PowerPoint?
Mark Soberman: Yup.
Ron Weiland: All right, sounds good. Hello everybody, I'm Coach Ron. I -- I do just about everything around here at NetPicks, help TJ with the live room and talk to just whatever trader we have. So, you know, I -- Ill go and give you this prediction and just dont bet the entire bank on it, mortgage your undervalued house, so -- but I believe oil will hit $100 in 2011. What do you do with that information? Lets say you know its going to happen, okay? How it will affect your trading? Are you gonna start skipping the -- the shorts? You know, what are you gonna do? The fact of the matter is that it doesnt matter if the market goes up or down. Okay, we really dont care. We like volatility. We like it when it, either, you know, keep
